532
FXUS61 KALY 072318
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
718 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION, BUT LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT,
AND FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND THURSDAY LOWERED DEW POINTS AND RAISED
DAYTIME HIGHS. ALSO INCREASED WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FINALLY,
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
QUICKER IN MODEL GUIDANCE, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO
AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT IN THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS LATE THIS
WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2) THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS OF 1:35 PM EDT...SFC LOW THAT BROUGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION EARLIER TODAY IS NOW TRACKING OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR
REGION WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THERE ARE STILL SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE DUE IN PART
TO LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT FROM COLD ADVECTION OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARMER LAKES, WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION ALSO FROM THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD POOL ALOFT PASSING OVERHEAD. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE REGION, EXCEPT IN THE ADKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS WHERE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO A HALF INCH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN THE
ADKS WITH SNOW SHOWERS, TO NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
WHERE THERE HAS BEEN MORE SUN AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SO FAR
TODAY. WINDS ARE ALSO BREEZY ACROSS THE REGION, WITH MOST AREAS
GUSTING TO 20-35 MPH AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 800
MB PER MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
TONIGHT, SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS BECOME
CALM AFTER 06Z, WITH CLEARING SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RADIATE INTO THE 10S TO LOW 20S, WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT LOWS
POSSIBLE IN THE ADKS. THIS SFC HIGH COMBINED WITH RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP US DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING CLOSER TO NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY TO MID
APRIL. THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY, ALLOWING FOR
MORE WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S. IT ALSO BECOMES BREEZY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST,
BUT WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
ONE FORECAST CHANGE IS THAT A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION NOW LOOKS TO DROP INTO
OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THERE, BUT FORCING AND MOISTURE BOTH LOOK UNIMPRESSIVE.
THEN, FRIDAY, ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS
FRONT. MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS TIME,
BUT THE BEST FORCING STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION.
GIVEN THESE FORECAST CHANGES, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS NOW LOOK
POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA FRIDAY. THE COLD
FRONT TRACKS SOUTH OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE REST OF THE REGION. FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THAT
REMAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL, AND COULD GET BACK INTO THE 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW-
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE
COMPLETELY RAIN-FREE. AT THIS TIME, MONDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS WELL,
BUT THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES TRACKING TO OUR
WEST IN THE SW FLOW ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALOFT. IF
ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES MAKES IT UP AND OVER THE RIDGE, THEN A
FEW SHOWERS WOULD BE POSSIBLE MONDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THURSDAY, DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE 10S TO 20S. RH VALUES WILL THEREFORE
DROP TO 25-35% FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH, STRONGEST IN THE CHANNELED FLOW AREAS
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE WHETHER OR NOT
FUELS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF FIRE SPREAD, AS MOST OF THE REGION
(OUTSIDE OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND) SAW
AROUND 0.1" OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING, WITH SOME OF
THAT FALLING AS SNOW. NEVERTHELESS, TOMORROW LOOKS SUNNY AND
DRY, WHICH SHOULD HELP THE FUELS TO DRY OUT AT LEAST SOMEWHAT.
WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE FORECAST AND COORDINATE WITH STATE
PARTNERS AS NEEDED FOR ANY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MAINLY BKN CIGS AROUND 3500-4500 FT AGL
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THEN SKC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE WEST-
NORTHWEST AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT, DECREASING TO
LESS THAN 5 KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 4-7 KT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...07
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