362
FXUS61 KALY 090604
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
204 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MAINTAINED LOWER DEWPOINTS/RH AND STRONGER WINDS/WIND GUSTS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO MADE SIMILAR CHANGES FOR SATURDAY BEHIND
COLD FRONT/SHORTWAVE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE
REGION, EXCEPT IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WHERE SNOW REMAINS ON
THE GROUND.
2) BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH COULD LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD SATURDAY.
3) SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT, OTHERWISE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY START IN SOME AREAS THIS MORNING, GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE EAST, WHILE LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTHWEST
OF THE REGION ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
TACONICS MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90 THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION, AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DEEPENS, DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN OR DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S FOR MANY AREAS,
WITH LOCALLY LOWER LEVELS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO
DROP INTO THE 25-30% RANGE AND ALLOW FOR INCREASED RISK OF FIRE
SPREAD. RED FLAG WARNINGS OR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS FOR
ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD HAVE BEEN ISSUED IN COLLABORATION
WITH FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES DUE TO THIS
POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE, MILDER TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS TEMPERATURES
REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY MORNING AS MIXING DEEPENS, WITH SOME GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY,
CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES, AND PERHAPS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. STRONGEST GUSTS MAY START TO DECREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TIGHTEST LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHIFTS EAST. RH VALUES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP TO 30-40%,
LOWEST WITHIN VALLEY AREAS BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
SOME POSSIBILITY OF EVEN LOWER RH VALUES IN THESE AREAS. THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH COULD LEAD TO AN ELEVATED
RISK OF FIRE SPREAD ONCE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHICH FAIL
TO RECEIVE A WETTING RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO IMMEDIATELY
PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, HOWEVER AS THE FRONT DROPS FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST, IT WILL TEND TO OUTRUN THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, THEREFORE SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME
MUCH MORE ISOLATED/SCATTERED FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY
FRIDAY NIGHT. 01Z/THU NBM 24-HOUR PROBS ENDING 8 AM SATURDAY FOR
>0.25" RAINFALL ARE 40-70% ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS,
10-30% WITHIN THE I-90 CORRIDOR, AND LESS THAN 10% SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY.
FAIR WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, HOWEVER SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY THEN OCCUR PERIODICALLY NEXT WEEK AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THEN POTENTIALLY STALLS JUST NORTH
OF THE REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER JUST HOW MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REACH WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WITH VERY WARM AIR ALOFT AND SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS, THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS (MAINLY VALLEY AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST) WHICH REACH
THE 70S OR HIGHER FOR DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD ENOUGH SUNSHINE OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO OUR EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERNIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT GIVE WAY TO FEW AND SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT
WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT, EXCEPT FOR AT KALB WITH
WIND SPEEDS 8-10 KT AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
WINDS INCREASE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS TOMORROW LATE MORNING BY 16Z
TO 10-15 KT FROM THE SOUTH AND GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT WITH THE STRONGEST
AT KALB UP TO 30 KT. WINDS BEGIN TO TAPER OFF UNDER 10 KT TOMORROW
AFTER SUNSET AND RANGE FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ207-208.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24/35
AVIATION...53
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page