457
FXUS61 KALY 092314
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DEW POINTS/RH ARE ALREADY LOWER (BY QUITE A BIT IN SOME AREAS)
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WE ALSO
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND WINDS UP BOTH TOMORROW AND SATURDAY,
AND LOWERED DEW POINTS BOTH AFTERNOON'S AS WELL. SPSS FOR AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD WILL BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARDS, AS WELL AS
THE CATSKILLS, FOR TOMORROW ONCE THE CURRENT HEADLINES END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) EACH DAY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY COULD FEATURE AN ELEVATED
RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD. ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. CONCERNS ARE
GREATEST OUTSIDE OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND.
2) AFTER SOME SHOWERS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT, DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A TREND TO A WETTER PATTERN AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS OF 2:25 PM EDT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S PER LATEST
ASOS AND NYS MESONET OBS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND A 1000 MB SFC LOW NEAR JAMES BAY IS
RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
HAS HELPED PROMOTE DEEP BL MIXING, WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE
10S AND 20S. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO
20-30 MPH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET. MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON NOW EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 15-25%, EXCEPT IN THE ADKS WHERE RH VALUES OF 25-35%
ARE EXPECTED. SPSS AND RED FLAG WARNINGS THAT WERE ISSUED
YESTERDAY CONTINUE THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING DUE TO THESE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
TOMORROW, A COLD FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARDS WILL BRING SHOWERS TO OUR
NORTHWESTERN AREAS, BUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR MUCH OF THE MOHAWK AND
HUDSON VALLEYS. DEW POINTS WILL BE HIGHER, BUT MINIMUM RH VALUES
FROM AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST WILL BE IN THE 30-
40% RANGE. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN TOMORROW, BUT NOT AS STRONG AS
TODAY (15-25 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED TOMORROW) PER COLLABORATION WITH THE
NYS DEC, FINE FUELS WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FIRE SPREAD, AND
THEREFORE AND SPS WILL BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
CATSKILLS LATER THIS EVENING ONCE CURRENT SPS/RFWS END.
SATURDAY MAY ALSO FEATURE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH RAIN FALLS WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT. RH
AND WIND VALUES BOTH LOOK TO ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR CRITICAL VALUES.
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN IN
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST, WHERE THE LOWEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS LOOK MUCH LIGHTER
SUNDAY, AND WE GET INTO A WETTER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH
SHOULD HELP MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP COMES FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHWEST, HELPING TO PUSH IT
SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT THE BEST UPPER FORCING REMAIN
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. EXPECTING ANYWHERE FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
WESTERN CT TO AS MUCH AS A HALF INCH OF RAIN ACROSS THE ADKS. A
FEW WET SNOWFLAKES COULD MIX IN ACROSS THE ADKS FRIDAY NIGHT AS
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN TRANQUIL WEATHER, ALTHOUGH SATURDAY LOOKS BREEZY
AHEAD OF THE SFC HIGH WITH DEEP BL MIXING ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM 40S IN THE TERRAIN TO 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS, WITH
CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S TO 30S WITH OUR REGION
DIRECTLY UNDER THE SFC HIGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD START TO
WARM UP MORE BY SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING ALOFT AND
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING MORE TO THE S/SW.
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
POTENTIALLY BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS
FRONT, WE GET INTO A SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES. IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO TIME OUT EACH OF
THESE DISTURBANCES, BUT WILL MENTION A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER EACH DAY
MONDAY - WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE
DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS, BUT OVERALL THE UPCOMING
PATTERN LOOKS QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MANY
VALLEY AREAS AND POTENTIALLY REACHING THE LOW 80S FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN CT.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS RANGING BETWEEN 15
AND 30 KNOTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS DECREASE BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z TO
LESS THAN 15 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TOMORROW
MORNING. INCREASING CLOUDS ARRIVE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, BUT
CEILINGS REMAIN VFR. FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WIND GUSTS COULD
INCREASE BETWEEN 12 AND 20 KNOTS AT KALB, KPSF, AND KPOU.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...05
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