376
FXUS61 KALY 101114
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST MAX TEMPS INCREASED FOR TODAY, ESPECIALLY AREAS WITHIN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. WINDS/WIND GUSTS
ALSO INCREASED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO, POPS HAVE INCREASED FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 AS SOME SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD TODAY, ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON, AND AGAIN FOR SATURDAY. GREATEST RISK WILL BE OUTSIDE
OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
2) SOME SHOWERS FOR LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT, THEN MAINLY DRY
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
FOLLOWED BY WETTER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD AND ACROSS WESTERN MA/NW CT,
SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD VEER INTO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON, AND COMBINED WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM AIR ALOFT, DEEP
MIXING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER/MID
70S BY LATE AFTERNOON, WARMEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION DUE TO DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF
THE CATSKILLS. THE DEEP MIXING SHOULD ALLOW RH VALUES TO DROP TO
AS LOW AS 30-35% THIS AFTERNOON, PERHAPS EVEN LOWER IN SOME
AREAS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN GUSTY, WITH
SOME GUSTS REACHING 25-35 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY, PARTICULARLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS FOR TODAY.
ON SATURDAY, IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT, ANOTHER PERIOD OF DEEP
MIXING SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD PROMOTE
GUSTY WINDS REACHING UP TO 30-35 MPH, AND RH DROPPING TO 25-35%
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT, WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER
RH VALUES FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. THESE CONDITIONS COULD POSE AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD ONCE AGAIN WHERE A WETTING
RAINFALL DOES NOT OCCUR LATER TODAY/TONIGHT, FAVORING AREAS
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OR
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND REACH PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON, THEN ACROSS THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN VT THIS
EVENING. AS THE FRONT TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST, IT WILL
TEND TO OUTRUN THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE,
ALLOWING SHOWERS TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE. 01Z/FRI NBM
24-HOUR PROBS FOR >0.25" RAINFALL ARE 40-70% ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS, 20-40% ACROSS THE MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY,
10-30% FOR THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN VT, AND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10% FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90.
GENERALLY DRY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT LOOKS TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO AREAS
MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH IS QUICKER THAN
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTED.
THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR AND
NORTH OF I-90. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF NEXT
WEEK, HOWEVER THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REACH GIVEN POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN AREAS WHERE
SOME BREAKS OF SUN CAN DEVELOP, DAYTIME MAX TEMPS MAY REACH
WELL INTO THE 70S, AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE 80S, WHILE AREAS
WHERE CLOUDS/SHOWERS PERSIST MAY ONLY REACH THE 50S/60S.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE
TERMINALS TODAY THROUGH ABOUT 01Z THIS EVENING. MAINLY SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS AND FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
WINDS HOLD FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND ARE UNDER 10 KT AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING EXCEPT KALB
WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KT. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AND BEGIN TO
PICK UP AT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON WITH WIND
SPEEDS 10-15 KT AND GUSTS 20-25 KT. HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW
STRATUS MIXING IN AT ALL THE TERMINALS BY THIS EVENING. WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INCREASING AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS, A PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT
01Z. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS THROUGH
FROM 01Z TO 04Z. POSSIBLE IFR VIS AND CIGS ARE SHOWN IN A TEMPO
FOR KGFL AND KALB AND A PROB30 IF SHOWERS ARE A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD AND MODERATE DUE TO UPSLOPING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A PERIOD OF CLEARING TO VFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24/35
AVIATION...53
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