118
FXUS61 KALY 102336
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
736 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED SOME LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AS RAIN SHOWERS
ARE FAVORED TO LINGER BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. SPSS FOR AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD WILL BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARDS, AS WELL AS THE
CATSKILLS, FOR TOMORROW ONCE THE CURRENT HEADLINES END THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND
AGAIN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GREATEST RISK WILL BE
OUTSIDE OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
2. RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARRIVE MONDAY, AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
3. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM
EASTERN QUEBEC INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH A MIX OF MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY, A
CONTINUED MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE WILL PROMOTE DEEP VERTICAL
MIXING, RESULTING IN PM HIGHS RISING INTO THE 60S (TERRAIN) TO
LOW/MID 70S (VALLEYS). SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS, IT WILL BE
QUITE BREEZY DUE TO THE MIXING WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOWS GUSTING
AROUND 25-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROMOTE MIXING DOWN
OF LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR, RESULTING IN SURFACE RHS GENERALLY
AROUND 25-35%. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK
OF FIRE SPREAD WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY,
PARTICULARLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH INTO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE
SPREAD HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS FOR TODAY.
ON SATURDAY, IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT, ANOTHER PERIOD OF DEEP
MIXING SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD PROMOTE GUSTY
WINDS REACHING UP TO 25-30 MPH, AND RH DROPPING TO 30-35% ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY, WESTERN MA AND NW CT, WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER RH
VALUES FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. THESE CONDITIONS COULD POSE AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD ONCE AGAIN WHERE A WETTING RAINFALL
DOES NOT OCCUR LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. PER COLLABORATION WITH THE
NYS DEC, FINE FUELS WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FIRE SPREAD, AND
THEREFORE AND SPS WILL BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
AND CATSKILLS LATER THIS EVENING ONCE CURRENT SPSS END.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS
REMAINS IN TRACK TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT, AFFECTED
AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST
CT. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ALLUDED TO, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
DROP OFF ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND EAST CWA AS THE FRONT OUTRUNS BETTER
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE LEVELS, RESULTING IN DECREASING
SHOWER COVERAGE. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
AROUND AN QUARTER OF AN INCH, WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS FAVORED MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHERN VERMONT (LATEST NBM
PROBABILITIES ARE AROUND 30-70% OF > 0.25" HERE) AND LESSER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT.
WE DRY OUT OVERALL THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. LATER SUNDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL RETREAT BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THANKS TO SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND
THE HIGH, WHICH WILL USHER IN A RENEWED ROUND OF LIFT AND MOISTURE
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS, AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS, WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL
TRACK. IN TERMS OF EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS, CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AFTER A COOL DOWN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S (TERRAIN) TO MID 50S (VALLEYS) AND
LOWS IN THE 20S (TERRAIN) AND 30S (VALLEYS) SUNDAY NIGHT,
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND HEADING INTO THE WORK WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING HIGH. 850 HPA TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO
AROUND 10-15 C TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR FAVORABLE VERTICAL MIXING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HIGH FAVORABILITY OF DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S BEGINNING TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT SEE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS.
SOME MAY EVEN SEE 80 ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE WARMEST 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE, BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOW GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER HINDERING WARMTH. THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH LONG TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
EXHIBITING LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
LATER IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO ALL SITES TO START THE TAF PERIOD WITH SHOWERS
OCCURRING MAINLY BETWEEN 01-06Z/SAT. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY LOWER TO THE MVFR RANGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AT ALL
SITES WITH CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ON ANY REDUCTIONS TO IFR. BEHIND
THESE SHOWERS AND FRONT, FLIGHT CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR WITH
KPSF THE LATER TO DO SO DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW.
WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY BY 06Z/SAT AND REMAIN
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS 10-20 KT
WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT, STRONGEST AFTER 12Z/SAT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24/17
AVIATION...33
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page