820
FXUS61 KALY 111807
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
207 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED EVEN WARMER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
THE GREATEST RISK FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
2. DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90,
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
3. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FOR THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL
DISTRICT, BERKSHIRES, MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION,
RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE SAME
AREAS. DESPITE SOME LIGHT RAINFALL LAST NIGHT, FINE FUELS REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR FIRE SPREAD GIVEN THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS NEAR THE
CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST UNTIL 6 PM TODAY FOR
ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST, RH VALUES
WILL BE HIGHER, AND ALSO MORE RAINFALL OCCURRED MITIGATING
CONCERNS THERE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING INTO
SUN P.M., AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT THEN SHIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST SUN AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO RISE, WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY
AS WELL. ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES BEST
CHANCES WILL BE FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. GREATEST
POPS(70-90%) SUN EVENING ARE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS, 50-70%
ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR, AND < 40% FARTHER SOUTH. WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER ON, IT WILL BE A
COOL DAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO MAINLY LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS. SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST INTO SUN NIGHT FOR THE SAME AREAS, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY EARLY MON MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT
ADVANCES NORTHWARD.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WILL BE INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH AN
OSCILLATING FRONT LOOKS TO RESULT IN SOME FLUCTUATIONS AND
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-90. ON MON, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS. MAIN QUESTION WILL
BE HOW MUCH SUNSHINE CAN OCCUR, ALTHOUGH EVEN JUST A FEW BREAKS
WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL WARMING GIVEN WARMTH ALOFT (850 MB
TEMPERATURES +8C TO +11C). WITH FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW FLOW ALOFT, A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALREADY BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SO A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY, WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FROM AROUND ALBANY NORTH. WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN, THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT ON TUE. THIS WILL LIKELY SEND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH 75-80F FORECAST FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/T-STORMS TUE
P.M. ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH FAIRLY FLAT FLOW
ALOFT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON WED AS OUR AREA WILL
STILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY
LEVELS(DEWPOINTS 50S TO LOWER 60S) ALONG WITH THE WARMTH,
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
T-STORMS. NBM PROBS FOR SBCAPE > 500 J/KG ARE 30-65% ON TUE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND 30-60% ON WED FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH. HOWEVER, PROBS FOR SBCAPE > 1000 ARE LOW AT <
20% SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOKS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS
TIME. SOME STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE WITH DECENT MID
LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. LATEST NBM PROBS FOR MAX TEMPERATURES > 80F
ARE 30-55% ON TUE IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
INTO NW CT, 40-90% ON WED FROM AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH, AND 30-80% ON THU IN MAINLY THE SAME AREAS. THE RECORD
HIGH WED MAY BE BROKEN AT POUGHKEEPSIE. SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR
LIST OF CURRENT RECORDS FROM TUE-THU.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FURTHER EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AS SUCH,
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AND WILL
FOR THE DURATION OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. VFR CEILINGS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY BREAK THIS EVENING BEFORE SKIES CLEAR
FOR A PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN AROUND OR JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK THROUGH THE END OF THIS
CYCLE AS AN UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES, BUT CEILINGS
THAT DEVELOP WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN VFR THRESHOLDS. BREEZY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WANE THIS
EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 10-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH PAIRED GUSTS OF 20-30 KT
WILL GIVE WAY TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS WELL BELOW 10 KT TONIGHT
WITHOUT GUSTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...12
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