143
FXUS61 KALY 120709
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
309 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINDS WERE INCREASED TONIGHT INTO MON IN THE CAPITAL
REGION/TACONICS/PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE
WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS EXPANDED
EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS, CAPITAL REGION AND WEST OF
THE GREEN MTNS IN SOUTHERN VT TUE PM.
KEY MESSAGES
1. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER THIS MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH AND WEST OF I-90
AND CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
2. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARRIVE FOR TUE
THROUGH THE MID WEEK, ALONG WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AS OF 3:09 AM EDT... FAIR, TRANQUIL AND COLD
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING, AS A SFC ANTICYCLONE HAS MOVED OVER
UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LOWS THIS MORNING IN THE 20S AND 30S.
TEMPS REBOUND NICELY DURING THE DAY, AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON, AS
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INCREASES. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY 5-15 MPH
WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTED SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION
INCREASE EARLY TONIGHT INTO THE 60-90% RANGE NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION, WHERE THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT OCCURS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. TWO TENTHS TO ONE THIRD OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR OVER THE ADIRONDACK PARK. THE
CHANCES OF RAINFALL ARE LOWER IN THE 20-55% RANGE FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR FOR LIGHTER SHOWERS. THE LOW-LEVEL JET DOES INCREASE.
SOME FUNNELING UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND
30-35 MPH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL TACONICS AND THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN
THE VALLEYS AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
MILDER TEMPS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SOME UPPER 30S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE SHOWERS DIMINISH MON MORNING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME WITH
THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION. IT WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY, AS A SHORT-WAVE AND AN EMBEDDED PREFRONTAL SFC
TROUGH MAY KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. THERE IS LITTLE TO
NO INSTABILITY, SO THUNDERSTORMS WERE KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST,
SO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH. TEMPS WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S (CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR) WITH MID 50S TO LOWER
60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS WILL BE VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH MAINLY 50S FOR LOWS, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
AND STALLS. THE RAINFALL IN NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY HEAVY, AS
NO HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TUE THROUGH THE MID/LATE WEEK, MID LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE 1 TO
2 STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST NAEFS. LOW TO MID-
LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN. HOWEVER, A SERIES OF SHORT-
WAVES MOVING ALONG THE RIM OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. H850
TEMPS INCREASE 1 TO 2 STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL ON TUE WITH THE
LATEST NBM SUPPORTING DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60F ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 15 TO 20+
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 60S TO LOWER/MID 70S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE WITHIN THE FLAT RIDGING AND
ANOTHER PRE-FRONTAL DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL IN 50-80%
RANGE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY,
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. THE
BEST MUCAPE IS WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION, SO A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS, BUT THE
TIMING OF THE IMPULSE IS UNCERTAIN FOR ANY ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60F. ON WED, THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH
INCREASES WITH THE NBM INDICATING A 40-85% CHANCE FOR MAX TEMPS
>80F FROM ALBANY SOUTH DOWN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. SFC
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE COMMON WITH
SOME 60S OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. INSTABILITY WILL BE
INCREASING SLIGHTLY, BUT STILL THE LATEST NBM INDICATES
PROBABILITIES FOR >500 J/KG SBCAPE ONLY 25-50% NEAR I84 AND
MAINLY MAINLY 15-20% FROM ALB WEST PRIOR TO 00Z/THU. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE
NY-CANADIAN BORDER AND WEAK IMPULSES POTENTIALLY MOVING ALONG
IT. BY THU, CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO WED, BUT THE FRONT
MAY START TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE HIGHEST PROBS FOR SHOWERS
IN THE 55-70% RANGE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE
SEVERE THREAT IS STILL NEBULOUS THIS FAR OUT, BUT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED LATE IN THE WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT THU NIGHT- FRI, A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRIER WEATHER MAY SET UP TO CLOSE THE WEEK AND OPEN NEXT WEEK.
STILL, TEMPS LOOKS ABOVE NORMAL BY CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES WITH
WIDESPREAD 60S AND 70S ON FRI-SAT.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/MON...VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS DRY WITH FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS TO START
THE DAY. CLOUDS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH THE
DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT BUT
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE FOR MOST. HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME
STRATIFORM RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST WHICH COULD LEAD
TO MVFR VIS AT KGFL, KALB, AND KPSF. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS
AT KGFL STARTING ABOUT AS EARLY AS 20Z AND KPSF AFTER 00Z.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ABOUT A 40% PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS FOR KALB
AFTER 00Z. THESE CHANCES ARE SHOWN IN A PROB30. SHOWERS COULD
LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KPOU SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR SOUTH. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND REMAIN 5-10 KT UNTIL ABOUT 16Z.
WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KT AND
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FROM THE SOUTH. WIND SHEAR AT 2,000 FT AGL IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT KPOU AND KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...53
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