104
FXUS61 KALY 122345
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
745 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MOST OF THE SHOWERS LATER AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL BE
CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-90.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SHOWERS BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH
OF I-90, CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS.
2. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK, ALONG WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ISENTROPIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TRENDS IN GUIDANCE SHOW THE
BEST FORCING SETTING UP NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR, WHICH IS
WHERE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT. WILL MENTION 50-80% POPS
NORTH OF I-90, WITH 20-50% FROM I-90 SOUTH. THE SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND LOW
PRESSURE ADVANCING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. GUSTS OF 25-35
MPH WILL BE COMMON IN FAVORED S-N ORIENTED VALLEYS AND SOUTH-
FACING HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO MON WITH LITTLE CHANGES IN THE PRESSURE PATTERN. A SHORT
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MON P.M., BRINGING ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SHOWERS. WILL MENTION 60-80% POPS FROM AROUND ALBANY NORTH/WEST.
SKIES WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY, BUT EVEN SOME BRIEF BREAKS
WILL LEAD TO QUICK WARMING WITH A MILD AIRMASS ALOFT SETTLING
IN. HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST
VALLEY AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FROM TUE TO THU, AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ACROSS THE SE CONUS WILL
PROVIDE AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM SW FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH DUE TO
BEING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THERE WILL BE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME T-STORMS DUE TO EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
AND PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
POSITIONED NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES
TO SHOW CONSISTENCY. LATEST NBM PROBS FOR MAX TEMPERATURES > 80F ARE
30-75% ON TUE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO NW CT, 40-90% ON WED
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH, AND 40-90% ON THU IN MAINLY THE
SAME AREAS. THE RECORD HIGH WED MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN AT
POUGHKEEPSIE. SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR LIST OF CURRENT RECORDS.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IN THIS PATTERN EACH DAY,
MAINLY DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
HOURS. GIVEN FAIRLY WEAK/SUBTLE FORCING, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE LOW. CAMS TEND TO BE INCONSISTENT IN
WEAK FORCING PATTERNS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION GREATEST POPS
(50-70%) FOR AREAS NORTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT, AND
MAINLY 30-50% SOUTH/EAST. WHILE THERE WILL BE AMPLE MID LEVEL
FLOW TUE-THU, THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND QUESTIONABLE
FORCING ARE THE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS TO MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TUE/WED, SO AT LEAST SOME SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK FOR DAY 3(TUE), WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW. LATEST
NBM PROBS FOR SBCAPE > 500 J/KG ARE 40-80% ON TUE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA(GREATEST WEST), 30-80% ON WED (GREATEST SOUTH OF ALB),
AND 30-60% ON THU. PROBS FOR SBCAPE > 1000 ARE MOSTLY LOW AT <
30%, BUT THERE ARE SMALL POCKETS OF 30-50% PROBS IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY ON TUE, 30-40% IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF MID HUDSON VALLEY ON
WED, AND 20- 30% IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY ON THU. SO THERE MAY
BE SOME CONCENTRATED AREAS OF STRONGER STORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT REMAIN LOW UNTIL GUIDANCE CAN GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE FORCING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/TUE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. THIS IS
BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD,
MAINLY AT KGFL, WITH PRECIPITATION NOT REACHING THE GROUND AT
KALB/KPSF AND ACTIVITY WELL NORTH OF KPOU. PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AT KGFL THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THERE AS
WELL AS ALL OTHER SITES. SHOWERS LIFT NORTH OF ALL SITES BY
02Z/MON WITH DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. SOME MVFR STRATUS MAY DEVELOP AT
KPOU/KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO VFR BY
14-16Z/MON. A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CROSS ALL TAF
SITES BETWEEN 16-21Z/MON AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE CROSSES WHERE
SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS COULD OCCUR.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY FOR TONIGHT AT 10 KT OR LESS AT
KGFL/KPOU/KPSF AND AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
KALB. WIND WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 12Z/MON
THEN WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
10-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT, STRONGEST AT KALB/KPSF.
PERIODS OF LLWS ARE POSSIBLE AT KPOU/KPSF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH 2000 FT WINDS INCREASING TO 40-50 KT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES(YEAR SET):
TUESDAY APRIL 14:
ALBANY: 89(2023)
GLENS FALLS: 84(2023)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 91(2023)
WEDNESDAY APRIL 15:
ALBANY: 86(2003)
GLENS FALLS: 84(2003)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 84(2003)
THURSDAY APRIL 16:
ALBANY: 91(2012)
GLENS FALLS: 89(2002)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 91(2012)
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...33
CLIMATE...07
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