087
FXUS61 KALY 131044
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW LEFT OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
HOURLY POPS UPDATE INTO THE LATE MORNING.
WINDS/WIND GUSTS WERE INCREASED TODAY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION/TACONICS/PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SOME GUSTS 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE. POPS WERE
INCREASED TUE PM FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD WITH THE PRE-
FRONTAL SFC TROUGH. MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE ALY FORECAST AREA ON TUE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS 30-40 MPH AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
2. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUE PM/EARLY EVENING WITH A FEW
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH A LEVEL 1 MARGINAL SEVERE RISK.
3. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MID WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, ALONG WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS PRIOR TO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM PA AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THIS MORNING, AS A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO
BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT. THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE NEARLY ZONAL. IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN, SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE INCREASED WITH
SOME GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND OVER THE
NORTHERN TACONICS. A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AT 850 HPA OF
40-55 KT WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY FOCUSING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT AND A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. LITTLE
TO NO INSTABILITY IS PRESENT, SO THUNDER WAS LEFT OUT OF THE
FORECAST. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25
MPH IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION, PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY, THE NORTH CENTRAL TACONICS, EASTERN CATSKILLS, AND
THE BERKSHIRES AND N-S ORIENTED VALLEYS WITH SOME GUSTS 30-40
MPH. WE LEANED CLOSER TO THE LATEST NBM 90% WIND/WIND GUSTS FOR
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE PEAK GUSTS WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE EARLY TO MID PM WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THE 50-90% RANGE WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
TRI CITIES. HIGHS TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL BE
MILD WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND MID
60S TO MID 70S IN THE VALLEYS. SHOWERS DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN DACKS AND UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD IN THE 50S WITH SOME
MID/UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACK PARK AND SOUTHERN GREENS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ON TUESDAY, THE FLOW CONTINUES TO BE ZONAL ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH STRONG RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND GULF REGION. H850 TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING 1 TO 2
STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL, AS MAX TEMPS ON TUE WILL GENERALLY BE 15-20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH 60S AND 70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S NEAR
I-84. THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR NORTHERN NY AND
THE CANADIAN BORDER. A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH AND WEAK WAVE
MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING SOME LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE TIMING IS VARIABLE ON THE CAMS,
BUT SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE TALL ENOUGH FOR STRONG/ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE LATEST HREFS FORECASTS MEAN SBCAPES
500-1000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM DEEP SHEAR 40-50 KT. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE STEEP WITH SOME OF THE MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE REGION
WITH SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SPC HAS UPGRADED MOST OF
THE REGION INTO A LEVEL 1 MARGINAL RISK. THE 3-KM NAM HAS A BIT
MORE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. SOME STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE T-STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE TUE PM INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. ZONAL FLOW IS CHALLENGING TO TIME THESE DISTURBANCES.
WE KEPT OUR HIGHEST POPS FOR SHOWERS (60-90%) AND A CHANCE OF
T-STORMS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST. THE
SHOWER/T-STORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHES PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH
ANOTHER VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM THE MID
TO LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. LOW TO MID LEVEL WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH A SERIES OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND FL IMPACTING THE REGION. THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS STATIONARY OVER NRN NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
ANOTHER PREFRONTAL DISTURBANCE AND A WAVE BRINGS ANOTHER BATCH
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED T-STORMS. A FEW
COULD ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE STRONG SIDE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE COMMON
EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS WHERE SOME 60S ARE POSSIBLE. THE
LATEST 01Z NBM YIELDS A 40-90% CHANCE FOR MAX TEMPS >80F FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY, THE
SOUTHERN TACONICS AND NW CT. AS REFERENCED IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DISCUSSION, THE RECORD AT KPOU ON WED COULD BE TIED OR
BROKEN, AND SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS.
SOME SIGNALS FROM THE MEDIUM GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES THAT THE
WARMEST DAY COULD BE THU WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
INCREASING. THE NBM HAS 30-50% PROBABILITIES ARE FAR NORTH AS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT FOR MAX TEMPS >80F
POSSIBLE...60-90% PROBABILITIES ARE FORECASTED FROM THE
SOUTHERN CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. WIDESPREAD UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ARE LIKELY ON THU WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH I-90 THU-THU NIGHT. A FEW STRONG
T-STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY. THE COLD FRONT AND A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES THE APRIL SHOWERY WEATHER ON FRI WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER
MAY OPEN THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN, BUT
ANOTHER FRONT AND TROUGH BRINGS SHOWERS BACK IN TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND. TEMPS STILL LOOK ABOVE NORMAL BY 10-15 DEGREES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 12Z/TUE...A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAINLY AT PSF AND
POU WHERE THE WINDS AT 2000KFT LOOK TO RANGE 40-45KT WHILE SFC
WINDS REMAIN UNDER 10KTS. MVFR CIGS AT POU EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14 UTC WITH PSF LIKELY REMAINING VFR. THEN,
SOUTHERLY WINDS TURN GUSTY THIS MORNING REACHING 20-25KTS AT
ALL TERMINALS. THE MAIN COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS
TRACKING FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF IT, MAINLY 17 - 23 UTC.
GIVEN LACKLUSTER MOISTURE, THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN FLYING CONDITIONS PRIMARILY REMAINING VFR WITH PERHAPS
BRIEF 5SM VIS DURING ANY STEADIER SHOWERS AT GFL OR ALB. USED
TEMPO GROUPS TO ILLUSTRATE THIS. OTHERWISE, SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS ALSO TURN QUITE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON REACHING 30-35KTS AT
ALL TERMINALS.
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, A FEW
LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS TRACKING WEST TO EAST LOOK LIKELY
AT ALB AND PSF. POU AND GFL REMAINING MAINLY SOUTH/NORTH,
RESPECTIVELY, OF MOST SHOWERS. HOWEVER, VFR FLYING CONDITIONS
AGAIN EXPECTED DURING ANY SHOWER. WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND TURN WEAKER BY SUNSET WITH GUSTS
SUBSIDING AND SUSTAINED WINDS DROPPING UNDER 10KTS. AS SKIES
OVERNIGHT, MVFR CIGS/VIS LOOK POSSIBLE AT GFL AND PSF. IFR VIS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT GFL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD SHOULD THICKER
FOG DEVELOP BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSRA.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES(YEAR SET):
TUESDAY APRIL 14:
ALBANY: 89(2023)
GLENS FALLS: 84(2023)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 91(2023)
WEDNESDAY APRIL 15:
ALBANY: 86(2003)
GLENS FALLS: 84(2003)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 84(2003)
THURSDAY APRIL 16:
ALBANY: 91(2012)
GLENS FALLS: 89(2002)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 91(2012)
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...31
CLIMATE...07
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