059
FXUS61 KALY 131932
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
332 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS FORECAST ITERATION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ISOLATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW EVENING THREATEN TO BRING STRONG TO
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THAT COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED DOWNED
TREES AND/OR POWER LINES, POWER OUTAGES, AND PROPERTY DAMAGE
2. THE THREAT FOR IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS LOW FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WE HAVE OFFICIALLY BECOME LOCKED INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF A
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED IN EASTERN QUEBEC WITH A WARM
FRONT NOW DISPLACED TO OUR EAST AND A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT ARE PRESENTLY
DEPARTING TO THE EAST WHILST ANOTHER BATCH IS ENTERING OUR
NORTHWESTERN CWA BOUNDARY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ON THE ORDER
OF 14 TO 20 DEGREES HAVE GREATLY LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
THAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT THE SURFACE DESPITE SUFFICIENT-LOOKING
REFLECTIVITIES OBSERVED ON THE KENX RADAR THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT, ALL MEASURABLE RAINFALL
HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS WHERE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT
HAS HELPED TO OVERCOME LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING, ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION, PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND MID-HUDSON VALLEY. AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER
IS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, BUT WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY, THIS IS VERY ISOLATED POTENTIAL. SHOWERS TAPER OFF
SHORTLY AFTER DARK THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
TOMORROW WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO HIGHLY
SCATTERED STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF OUR NORTHERN
ZONES. STILL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW,
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FORCE CONTINUED MOISTURE
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO HELP INITIATE AND THEN MAINTAIN
DESTABILIZATION. THOUGH UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAK,
THERE IS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THAT
WILL SEND A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE UPWARD ASCENT AS WEAK
SURFACE WAVES PROPAGATE OFF THE BOUNDARY. MAXIMUM SBCAPE VALUES
ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG AND ISOLATED, LOCAL MAXIMUMS UP TO
1500 J/KG WILL ALIGN WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
HIGH DCAPE TO THREATEN STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS
THE PRIMARY HAZARD RESULTING FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
IS ULTIMATELY WHAT DROVE THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA FROM SPC. AT THIS POINT, THE CAMS ARE
STILL HIGHLY VARIED IN THEIR DEPICTIONS OF THE COVERAGE OF
SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE LACK OF A DISTINCT FRONTAL PASSAGE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS AND UPPER TROUGH ALOFT. THAT SAID, THE
ORIENTATION OF THE 1 AND 6 KM SHEAR VECTORS INDICATE A CELLULAR
STORM MODE TO START WITH A POTENTIAL MERGING OR CLUSTERING OF
CELLS AS THE EVENT DRAWS ONWARD. SPC HREF ENSEMBLE PAINTBALL
PLOTS SEEM TO INDICATE THE MOST AGREEMENT IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS
OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL
CLUSTER OR BORDERLINE LINEAR SEGMENTS DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND POSSIBLY IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AREAS. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE THE MOST
REPRESENTATIVE OF THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME SO WE ERRED ON THAT
ELEMENT OF GUIDANCE WHEN DEVELOPING THE FORECAST. THAT SAID,
POTENTIALLY EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER AMID A MOIST ENVIRONMENT COULD
BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO STORMS BECOMING SEVERE TOMORROW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS AS WEAK SHORTWAVES
PULSE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE
SOUTH. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WAS JUST INTRODUCED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS FOR WEDNESDAY WHERE AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG TO ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER, FOR THE MOST PART, THE
OVERALL PROBABILITY OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IS LOW GIVEN THE LOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND THE LOW
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT WILL NOT POSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE, AIDED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH, HAS
BEEN ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS AND CAMS, BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS NEAR KGFL. RECENT AND NEARBY
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN SHOWING LIMITED IMPACTS ON
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS FROM THESE SHOWERS, DUE TO DRY AIR AT
LOW LEVELS AND FAIRLY LIMITED FORCING, SO WON'T EXPECT MUCH
IMPACT ON THE TAF SITES. WILL INCLUDE A BRIEF TEMPO FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KGFL OVER NEXT FEW HOURS, OTHERWISE, IT SHOULD
STAY VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY, ALTHOUGH NOT NEARBY AS STRONG
AS WHAT WAS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS TAF. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS, WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE
20-26 KT RANGE, MAINLY FOR KALB AND KPSF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THESE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME MIXING.
FOR TONIGHT, FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR. THERE WILL
BE BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME CLEARING LATE. A LINGERING BREEZE, DRY LOW
LEVELS AND ENOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING
TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 5 KTS BY
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL START VFR FOR TUESDAY, BUT LOWERING
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON, AS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH. WILL MENTION MVFR CIGS TOWARDS
MIDDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD (ENDING AS
18Z TUESDAY) AND INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES(YEAR SET):
TUESDAY APRIL 14:
ALBANY: 89(2023)
GLENS FALLS: 84(2023)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 91(2023)
WEDNESDAY APRIL 15:
ALBANY: 86(2003)
GLENS FALLS: 84(2003)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 84(2003)
THURSDAY APRIL 16:
ALBANY: 91(2012)
GLENS FALLS: 89(2002)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 91(2012)
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...27
CLIMATE...07
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