152
FXUS61 KALY 141715
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
115 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SOME PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED TO THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY, LAKE
GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS THIS MORNING.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER UPGRADED EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TO A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MINOR CHANGES TO
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OVER NORTHERN NY/NEW ENGLAND FOR
THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SCATTERED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE
MAIN THREAT TO TREES, POWER POLES AND PROPERTY.
2. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
3. THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS LOW FROM
THU THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL OVER THE NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THE AIR MASS IS MORE HUMID TODAY AND AFTER MORNING
PATCHY FOG BURNS OFF, TEMPS SHOULD WARM QUICKLY FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY DRIFTS BACK NORTH IN THE MORNING. A
PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL FOCUS A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE. THE LATEST HREF GUIDANCE INDICATES MEAN SBCAPES OF
500-1000 J/KG WITH POCKETS IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER IS 35-45 KT BASED ON THE HREF.
THE WINDS ARE STRONG IN THE H700-500 LAYER AT ABOUT 50 KT. THE
LATEST CAM GUIDANCE IS VARIABLE ON THE TIMING OF INITIALLY SOME
DISCRETE CELLS FORMING IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY PM OVER CENTRAL
NY AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND THEN QUICKLY FORMING
INTO A LINE IMPACTING MOST OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND IN THE MID-LATE PM/EARLY EVENING. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS
OF THE 3-KM HRRR ARE FASTER WITH THE IMPACT PERIOD FROM ABOUT
1-6 PM, WHEREAS THE 3-KM NAM IS SLOWER IN THE 3 TO 7 PM TIME
FRAME. SOME OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE 3-KM HRRR INDICATE
MLCAPE REACHING ABOUT 1000 J/KG WITH DCAPE IN THE 500-800 J/KG.
BOTH THE 3-KM HRRR AND NAMNEST INDICATED STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES BELOW 850 HPA FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH. THE UPDRAFTS
MAY EXTEND TALL ENOUGH AND TAP INTO THOSE STRONG WINDS IN THE
H700-500 LAYER FOR A ROBUST DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. SPC
UPGRADED THE ENTIRE AREA TO A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) WITH
15% PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING WINDS 50 KT OR GREATER. BOWING
SEGMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE LINE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IF THE LINE WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS IN OUR SOUTHEAST
EXTREME (MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT). WE TRIED TO TAKE A BLENDED
APPROACH BASED ON THE NBM AND COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORS FOR THE MAIN
IMPACT PERIOD TO BE 2 TO 8 PM (18Z TO 00Z). WITH THE FAST FLOW
THIS COULD MOVE THROUGH QUICKER THOUGH.
THE DAMAGING WINDS COULD KNOCK DOWN TREES, BREAK LARGE TREE
BRANCHES, DOWN POWER POLES AND LINES, AND YIELD SOME PROPERTY.
ALSO, CG LIGHTNING WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MODERATE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S. TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON SKY COVER, BUT 70S TO LOWER 80S
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE LOWER 80S WILL BE FROM ALBANY SOUTH TO
THE I-84 CORRIDOR INTO NW CT. 60S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DECREASE EARLY TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG FORMING
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. LOWS
WILL BE VERY MILD IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANOTHER WAVE QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION WED MORNING. THE SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE RIM OF THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA.
SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACT LOCATIONS FROM I-90 NORTHWARD IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
PM. ONE AREA THAT MAY BE VULNERABLE FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR
(SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT). MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN, AND THE DEEP SHEAR IS STILL 40 KT WITH
MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT
IS POSSIBLE AND SPC CONTINUES MOST OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL
(LEVEL 1 OUT 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 80 TO 85F
WILL BE COMMON IN THIS AREA WITH 60S AND 70S FURTHER NORTH. THE
LATEST 3-KM NAMNEST INDICATES SOME STRONGER CELLS MAY FORM
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WITH THE 00Z 3-KM HRRR
WITH LESS OF A THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONCLUDE THE WORK WEEK AND ENTER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY MAY KEEP TEMPS CLOSER
TO NORMAL AND THEN NEXT WEEK COULD START WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL BASED ON THE WPC DAYS 4 TO 7 FORECAST INSERTED. BACKING
UP, RIDGING MAY BUILD IN ENOUGH FOR THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE
WEEK (MID 70S TO LOWER 80S OUTSIDE THE NORTHERN MTNS) ON THU
WITH NBM PROBS (40-90%) SUPPORTING THIS. YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN NY
AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
SOME THUNDERSTORMS FOR THU WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION 50-70% FROM I-90 NORTH WITH LESSER OF A THREAT
SOUTH. A STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BEFORE A BRIEF
REPRIEVE OF DRIER WEATHER TO OPEN THE WEEKEND. THE PROBABILITY
OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS LOW DUE TO THE
LOWER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND THE RAINFALL BEING BENEFICIAL
WITH NO HYDRO IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS AS OF 1:15
PM EDT SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN, CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW ON COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS, BUT WE DID ATTEMPT TO NARROW DOWN THE TIMING OF
SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE. GIVEN CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS, GFL STILL HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A
SHOWER/STORM, BUT CHANCES FOR ALB/PSF/POU LOOK SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
WHEN THE 12Z TAFS WERE ISSUED, SO WE HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS TO REFLECT THIS. GUSTY WINDS AND IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS.
SHOWERS/STORMS COME TO AND END THIS EVENING BY 00-02Z. THEN, MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH SCT TO BKN
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. CIGS TREND DOWN TO MVFR AT ALB/GFL/PSF FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. IF ANY OF THESE TERMINALS SEE A
SHOWER/STORM WITH APPRECIABLE RAINFALL THIS EVENING, THEN SOME
LOCALIZED FOG/MIST AND IFR CONDITIONS CAN'T BE RULED OUT LATER
TONIGHT. FLYING CONDITIONS TREND BACK UP TO VFR FOR MOST OF TOMORROW
MORNING, OUTSIDE OF A BATCH OF SHOWERS THAT COULD BRING SOME MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES(YEAR SET):
TODAY APRIL 14:
ALBANY: 89(2023)
GLENS FALLS: 84(2023)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 91(2023)
WEDNESDAY APRIL 15:
ALBANY: 86(2003)
GLENS FALLS: 84(2003)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 84(2003)
THURSDAY APRIL 16:
ALBANY: 91(2012)
GLENS FALLS: 89(2002)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 91(2012)
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...35
CLIMATE...07
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