825
FXUS61 KALY 141930
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
330 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. BUT
WHAT WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED PRIMARILY FOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT,
NOW INCLUDES LOW PROBABILITIES OF LARGE HAIL (AT LEAST 1" IN
DIAMETER) AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO, MAINLY FOR AREAS WITHIN AND
NORTH OF ALBANY.
NOW THAT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN
COLLABORATED AND ISSUED FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL, BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
PARTICULARLY NORTH OF ALBANY. WE HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND THE PRIMARY THREATS OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING THREATEN TO BRING LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL THAT COULD CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE
POWER OUTAGES.
2. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
3. THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS LOW FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE LATEST SPC HOURLY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS A MID-LEVEL,
RELATIVELY COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES, EMBEDDED WITHIN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE, A
WEAK WAVE/LOW RESTS ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ORIENTED HORIZONTALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, JUST OUTSIDE OUR NORTHERN CWA
BOUNDARY. THE CORE OF THE SURFACE WAVE/LOW CURRENTLY RESIDES
JUST ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN DEEP,
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WITH AN ANTICIPATED EASTWARD TRAJECTORY ALONG
THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY ENTERED AND
SWIFTLY DEPARTED THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS LATE THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF AN INITIAL SURFACE
WAVE/LAKE-SHORE BOUNDARY OFF LAKE ONTARIO, THOUGH AN OVERALL
LACK OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING LED QUICKLY TO THEIR DEMISE
BEFORE VERTICAL GROWTH WAS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW THEM TO
POSE ANY CONCERN. QUITE FRANKLY, THAT IS OUR PRIMARY CONCERN
WITH THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING: LACK OF FORCING. WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS HAVE, WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION AND BREAKS OF
SUN AMID AN ALREADY ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIRMASS, ATTAINED SBCAPE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG, THE LACK OF STRONG
FORCING MAY ULTIMATELY WIN OUT OVER SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
FOR WIDESPREAD NON-SEVERE AND SEVERE CONVECTION.
AMID EXTENSIVE DATA INTERPRETATION, INCLUDING THAT OF LATEST
RADAR TRENDS, THE CONCLUSION HAS BEEN DRAWN THAT THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY, OR THREAT, FOR SEVERE-LEVEL CONVECTION COMES MID THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WHEN THE EASTWARD TRACK OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL INTERSECT THAT OF THE SURFACE WAVE
ALONG THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY. AS THESE TWO FEATURES FURTHER
APPROACH OUR REGION, SOME OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED
THAT A LOCAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM, THOUGH A WEAKENING ONE AT THAT,
WILL ALSO SLIDE EASTWARD, INCREASING THE VERTICAL STRETCHING AND
SUBSEQUENTLY THE UPWARD LIFT ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. INCREASED SURFACE CONVERGENCE FROM BOTH THE BOUNDARY
AND THE EASTWARD-PROPOGATING SURFACE WAVE SHOULD ALIGN WELL WITH
THIS VORT MAX TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR ASCENT FOR
AREAS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, WITH THE
SURFACE WAVE EXTENDING WELL OFF THE BOUNDARY AND THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE SINKING SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH ALONG ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION, FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
WILL SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE, AIDING IN MAINTAINING ANY
DEVELOPING CONVECTION MUCH FARTHER SOUTH.
SHOULD THE SURFACE WAVE EXTEND FARTHER, HENCE EXPANDING THE RISK
FOR DEVELOPING AND SUSTAINING CONVECTION, SBCAPE VALUES RISING
WIDELY TO 1000 J/KG, IF NOT POCKETS OF VALUES IN EXCESS OF THAT,
0-6KM BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KT, AND STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF ABOUT 6-7 C/KM WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT, AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT PARTICULARLY WITHIN AND
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. 1 AND 6 KM SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED
NEARLY 45 DEGREES AND PARALLEL TO ENVIRONMENTAL HODOGRAPHS
RESPECTIVELY INDICATE THAT STORM MODE SHOULD INITIALLY BEGIN
CELLULAR BEFORE POTENTIALLY CONGEALING FURTHER DOWNSTREAM INTO
CLUSTERS, IF NOT LINE SEGMENTS. THE LATEST SCANS OF THE KENX
RADAR SUPPORT THIS THOUGHT, AS CELLULAR STRUCTURES CAN BE SEEN
PULSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CERTAINLY, SHOULD ANY
STRONG CELLS OR SUPERCELLS FORM, COOL OUTFLOW COULD ENHANCE
COLD POOLS AND HELP CREATE SOME NEARBY BOWING OF CLUSTERS OR
LINEAR SEGMENTS SHOULD THEY BE ADJACENT ENOUGH TO TAP INTO THOSE
ENVIRONMENTS. ADDITIONALLY, ANY DEVELOPING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
COULD ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM.
WITHIN SUPERCELLULAR CONVECTION, LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. SHOULD AN UPDRAFT BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH (STRONG ENOUGH) TO LOFT HAILSTONES FOR
PROLONGED PERIODS OF TIME, THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE COME 1"
HAILSTONES IN SOME AREAS. THE LIMITING FACTOR HERE IS SHORTER
UPPER-LEVEL SEGMENTS OF THE ENVIRONMENT HODOGRAPHS WHICH
INDICATE THERE MAY BE A SHORT SHELF LIFE OF STONES WITHIN THE
UPDRAFT. INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS FROM WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENTS AS
WELL AS HIGH DCAPE (~300-800 J/KG) AND AFOREMENTIONED STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY, OR
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IS ON THE MODERATE SIDE AND CONVERGENT,
LOW-LEVEL WINDS COULD DRIVE SOME LOW AND MID-LEVEL TURNING.
SHOULD SUPERCELLS DEVELOP, MID-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES COULD DROP
GIVEN LOWER LCLS. BUT, AS PREVIOUSLY STATED, THIS IS MUCH MORE
OF AN ISOLATED THREAT.
NOW, FOR THOSE REASONS, SCATTERED SEVERE CONVECTION IS FAVORED
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, THE
LACK OF SLABULAR FORCING FROM A TRUE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER-
LEVEL DYNAMIC FORCING IN THE ABSENCE OF A LARGE SCALE OR EVEN
MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH, SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT THE
SPATIAL EXTENT OR COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS DURING THE
AFOREMENTIONED TARGET TIME. ADDITIONALLY, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE SURFACE WAVE WILL EXTEND. IF
IT IS SHUNTED FARTHER NORTH, SEVERE-LEVEL CONVECTION WILL BE
VERY DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN. OR, RATHER, WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO
MAINTAIN MUCH FARTHER SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY DESPITE THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES. WE ARE MONITORING THE TRENDS OF
THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND WILL ULTIMATELY ISSUE ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AS NECESSARY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MEAN, ZONAL FLOW
TOMORROW, BRINGING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH TODAY'S QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY STILL
PRESENT, JUST A BIT FURTHER SOUTH, AND ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE
RIDING ALONG IT, THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS WHERE A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY EXISTS. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH THESE WILL ALSO BE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, BUT THE THREAT LOOKS MUCH MORE SUBDUED COMPARED TO TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL FORCE A RINSE-AND-REPEAT TYPE
PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ROUNDS OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AMID A PERSISTENT, WARM
ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL
UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN A FAIRLY
POTENT COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION AND BRINGS US
ACTUALLY TO BELOW-NORMAL LEVELS BY MONDAY. THAT SAID, THE
OVERALL PROBABILITY FOR IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS LOW FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS AS OF 1:15
PM EDT SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN, CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW ON COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS, BUT WE DID ATTEMPT TO NARROW DOWN THE TIMING OF
SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE. GIVEN CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS, GFL STILL HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A
SHOWER/STORM, BUT CHANCES FOR ALB/PSF/POU LOOK SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
WHEN THE 12Z TAFS WERE ISSUED, SO WE HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS TO REFLECT THIS. GUSTY WINDS AND IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS.
SHOWERS/STORMS COME TO AND END THIS EVENING BY 00-02Z. THEN, MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH SCT TO BKN
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. CIGS TREND DOWN TO MVFR AT ALB/GFL/PSF FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. IF ANY OF THESE TERMINALS SEE A
SHOWER/STORM WITH APPRECIABLE RAINFALL THIS EVENING, THEN SOME
LOCALIZED FOG/MIST AND IFR CONDITIONS CAN'T BE RULED OUT LATER
TONIGHT. FLYING CONDITIONS TREND BACK UP TO VFR FOR MOST OF TOMORROW
MORNING, OUTSIDE OF A BATCH OF SHOWERS THAT COULD BRING SOME MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES(YEAR SET):
TODAY APRIL 14:
ALBANY: 89(2023)
GLENS FALLS: 84(2023)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 91(2023)
WEDNESDAY APRIL 15:
ALBANY: 86(2003)
GLENS FALLS: 84(2003)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 84(2003)
THURSDAY APRIL 16:
ALBANY: 91(2012)
GLENS FALLS: 89(2002)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 91(2012)
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...35
CLIMATE...07
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