087
FXUS61 KALY 150010
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
810 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #108 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SOUTHERN VERMONT NORTH, BUT REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS IN EASTERN NY SOUTH OF ALBANY AND
BERKSHIRE MA/LITCHFIELD CT THROUGH 10 PM. STILL LOOKING AT
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS WHERE THE
ENVIRONMENT IS STILL FAVORABLE WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80F AND
STILL WELL MIXED. THE THREAT WILL EVENTUALLY WANE AFTER 10 PM AS
THE ENVIRONMENT STABILIZES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS
EVENING THREATEN TO BRING LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THAT
COULD CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES.
2. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
3. THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS LOW FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SCATTERED SEVERE CONVECTION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THIS EVENING WHERE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT. EVENTUALLY, THE RAIN-COOLED AIR AND COOL OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS AND DIURNAL EFFECT WILL ALSO STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT,
HINDERING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING ALONG. SEVERE
STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MEAN, ZONAL FLOW
TOMORROW, BRINGING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH TODAY'S QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY STILL
PRESENT, JUST A BIT FURTHER SOUTH, AND ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE
RIDING ALONG IT, THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS WHERE A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY EXISTS. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH THESE WILL ALSO BE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, BUT THE THREAT LOOKS MUCH MORE SUBDUED COMPARED TO TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL FORCE A RINSE-AND-REPEAT TYPE
PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ROUNDS OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AMID A PERSISTENT, WARM
ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL
UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN A FAIRLY
POTENT COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION AND BRINGS US
ACTUALLY TO BELOW-NORMAL LEVELS BY MONDAY. THAT SAID, THE
OVERALL PROBABILITY FOR IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS LOW FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SHRA/TSRA ARE NOW WELL SOUTH OF KGFL/KALB
AND HAVE JUST MOVED SOUTH OF KPSF. THERE IS STILL A LINE OF
SHRA/TSRA WITH GUSTY WINDS THAT MAY REACH KPOU BEFORE
WEAKENING, SO HAVE MENTIONED A TEMPO FROM 01Z-03Z. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL UNTIL OVERNIGHT WHEN FOG IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KGFL AND POSSIBLY AT KPSF GIVEN THE EARLIER
RAIN AND MOIST LOW LEVELS. WILL MENTION IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT
KGFL AND IFR AT KPSF ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THERE.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCLUDED
PROB30 AT MOST SITES. WINDS WILL BE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10
KT, BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES(YEAR SET):
TODAY APRIL 14:
ALBANY: 89(2023)
GLENS FALLS: 84(2023)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 91(2023)
WEDNESDAY APRIL 15:
ALBANY: 86(2003)
GLENS FALLS: 84(2003)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 84(2003)
THURSDAY APRIL 16:
ALBANY: 91(2012)
GLENS FALLS: 89(2002)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 91(2012)
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07/12
AVIATION...07
CLIMATE...07
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