659
FXUS61 KALY 150614
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
214 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR TODAY WAS
EXPANDED A BIT TO COVER MOST AREAS SOUTH OF I-90. THE MARGINAL
SEVERE WEATHER RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR TOMORROW WAS UPGRADED TO
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90 ON
THURSDAY. DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM ANY
SEVERE STORM.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 TODAY WITH A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90 TOMORROW.
DAMAGING WINDS IS THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM ANY SEVERE STORM BOTH
DAYS.
2. THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS LOW FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
OUR "RIDGE ROLLER" PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY AS A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A DECAYING MCS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK EASTWARD THIS MORNING RESULTING
IN A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY ISOLATED STORMS LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY P.M FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-90. THE
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERS OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD KEEP SKIES RATHER CLOUDY, ESPECIALLY FROM I-90 NORTHWARD,
AND SUPPRESSES BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL BY MID-APRIL STANDARDS, MOST WILL BE
LOWER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHEN MANY HIT 80 FOR THE FIRST TIME
IN 2026. THE EXCEPTION IS THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR BREAKS OF
P.M SUN AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. WITH
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STILL AROUND, THE SUNSHINE SHOULD
GENERATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
1000-1500J/KG OF SB CAPE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE FAST FLOW ALOFT
SUPPORTING DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES 40-50KTS AND STEEPENING MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6-6.5C/KM PRESENTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION FOCUSED IN THE NORTHERN/EASTERN CATSKILLS,
MID-HUDSON VALLEY, NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY WHERE
SPC EXPANDED ITS MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) A BIT COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, OVERALL FORCING REMAINS LIMITED THIS
AFTERNOON AS GUIDANCE SHOWS JUST SOME VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES
TRACKING WITHIN THE FAST FLOW. CAMS MATCH THIS THINKING SHOWING
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. WE THEREFORE
CAPPED POPS AT CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS. SHOULD SUFFICIENT FORCING
ALLOW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE
MARGINAL RISK AREA, AN ISOLATED OR TWO STORM MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARD. WE TREND POPS UPWARDS TO
LIKELY AND EVEN CATEGORICAL TONIGHT WHEN A MORE PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BUT GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT
TIMING, THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW.
FOR THURSDAY, OUR QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD
NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF I-90 AS A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT
TIGHTENING. AREAS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY LOOK TO BREAK OUT IN
SUN AND WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING RATHER MOIST, THE INSOLATION
WILL AGAIN CONTRIBUTE TO 500 - 1000 J/KG OF SB CAPE. AGAIN, THE
FAST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT RATHER HIGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES AND WITH GOOD AGREEMENT FOR STRONGER SHORTWAVES OR "RIDGE
ROLLERS" TRACKING WITHIN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW, THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT THE STRONGER LOW AND MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL
LIKELY GENERATE AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY, A LINEAR STORM MODE SHOULD BE FAVORED
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM. SPC HAS UPGRADED THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO A SLIGHT
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90 WHERE THE
STRONGER FORCING EXISTS WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR MOST OF EASTERN
NY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER OUR STRETCH OF SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY, A POTENT COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE LATEST NBM
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWING ONLY A 20 TO 40% CHANCE FOR 24
HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 8PM SUNDAY TO EXCEED 0.50" ACROSS
THE AREA, FLOODING IMPACTS ARE UNLIKELY. HOWEVER, THERE IS
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY DROP BELOW
NORMAL WITH THE LATEST NBM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWING LESS
THAN A 20% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TO RISE ABOVE 50 DEGREES. THE POTENTIAL FOR
IMPACTFUL WEATHER REMAINS LOW FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THRU 06Z THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS BECOME STATIONARY OVER
NORTHERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR KGFL. THE SKIES
HAVE CLEARED WITH SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND. THE RECENT WET GROUND
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL
IFR/LIFR MIST/FOG AT KGFL AND ALSO AT KPSF BETWEEN 08Z-12Z/WED. SOME
MVFR STRATUS MAY MOVE IN AT KALB BETWEEN 09Z-13Z/WED WITH CIGS ABOUT
2.5 KFT AGL. WE USED A TEMPO GROUP TO ADDRESS THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRATUS. KPOU SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. A WEAKENING
BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL APPROACH KALB-KPSF NORTHWARD TO KGFL BETWEEN
13Z-17Z/WED. WE BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS IN WITH PROB30 GROUPS AT
KALB/KGFL WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. KPSF/KPOU WERE KEPT VFR WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING FOR KPSF TO VFR LEVELS. EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS MOST OF THE AFTERNOON FOR KALB-KPSF SOUTH TO KPOU WITH
SCT-BKN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS 4-5 KFT AGL WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR
CLOUDS AT KGFL. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT TOWARDS
23Z/WED TO 05Z/THU. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT KPOU WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS AND WE USED A PROB30 THERE AND FURTHER NORTH TO
KALB/KPSF, AS SHOWERS FROM 02Z-06Z/THU.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DECREASE TO 5 KT OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT IN
THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES(YEAR SET):
TODAY APRIL 15:
ALBANY: 86(2003)
GLENS FALLS: 84(2003)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 84(2003)
THURSDAY APRIL 16:
ALBANY: 91(2012)
GLENS FALLS: 89(2002)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 91(2012)
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...15
CLIMATE...07
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