142
FXUS61 KALY 151830
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
230 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED TEMPERATURES NORTH OF I-90 THIS AFTERNOON AS THESE
AREAS REMAIN NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INCREASED WIND GUSTS
TOMORROW AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF I-90,
AND A SLIGHT RISK TOMORROW NORTH OF I-90.
KEY MESSAGES
1. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY, AND A BETTER CHANCE TOMORROW WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5)
FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY
HAZARD FROM ANY SEVERE STORM BOTH DAYS.
2. TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TREND BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS OF 2:30 PM EDT: EARLIER THIS MORNING, A DECAYING MCS TRACKED
THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH HELPED TO REINFORCE THE THERMAL
GRADIENT ALONG A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS DRAPED NEAR THE
I-90 CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AND DRIFTED
BACK NORTH OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO, BUT THERE IS STILL LARGE
TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH 60S ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS TO LOW 80S NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
WHETHER OR NOT ANY CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IF IT DOES, THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE
FOCUS FOR CI. HOWEVER, LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY ISN'T OVERLY STRONG, AND THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WITH WEAK HEIGHT RISES ALOFT. CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MODEST VERTICAL GROWTH TO THE CU
FIELD TO OUR WEST OVER CENTRAL NY, BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT THAT WE
WOULD LIKE TO SEE TO GIVE US CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION
DEVELOPING. THAT SAID, IF ANY CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP, THE
ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF I-90 IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE WITH 1000-1500
J/KG OF SBCAPE AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. IF ANY STORMS
DEVELOP THEY COULD THEREFORE BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE (PRIMARY
HAZARD GUSTY WINDS), BUT WILL EMPHASIZE THAT THIS THREAT IS
CONDITIONAL UPON CONVECTION ACTUALLY DEVELOPING. EVEN IF STORMS
DEVELOP, EXPECTING COVERAGE TO REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER, UPPER FORCING INCREASES TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE ALOFT TRACKS
ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL.
A DECAYING MCS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR REGION, BRINGING BETTER CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWALTER VALUES DROP AS LOW AS -2
TO -4, BUT MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE INSTABILITY
SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED. THEREFORE, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.
TOMORROW, A SFC LOW OUT AHEAD OF A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS
WILL LIFT THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT,
PUTTING OUR ENTIRE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S AND 80S, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS EASTWARDS ACROSS
UPSTATE NY TOMORROW, A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN, THE SFC LOW WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING, WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH
STRENGTHENING UPPER FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL YIELD 40-50+ KT OF DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR. INSTABILITY ALSO LOOKS SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER, WITH UP
TO 1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND SOME LOCALLY HIGHER POCKETS. MAIN
QUESTION IS WHETHER THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL ACT AS THE MECHANISM
TO INITIATE CONVECTION, OR IF THINGS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT AND BETTER UPPER FORCING ARRIVE IN THE VERY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
REGARDLESS, THE PARAMETER SPACE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE, ESPECIALLY
FOR MID APRIL, SO WE AGREE WITH THE SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. ANY CELLS THAT
DEVELOP WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH COULD INITIALLY BE DISCRETE, BUT
STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST SPLITTING CELLS/UPSCALE GROWTH,
ESPECIALLY AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING WITH BETTER FORCING ARRIVING.
MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS, AS DCAPE VALUES LOOK TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG, BUT THE STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS AND
FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO SUPPORT A SECONDARY HAIL THREAT. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND LCLS MAY BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE
GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR DEEP BL MIXING BEFORE ANY STORMS DEVELOP.
BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH OF
I-90, BUT THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR MOST OF THE REST OF OUR
REGION. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE WIND AS STORMS TRACK INTO AN AREA
WITH A DEEPLY-MIXED BL, BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WANING BY THIS
TIME WITH THE STILL RELATIVELY EARLY SUNSETS. TIMING FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LOOKS TO BE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME TO AND END THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT TRACKS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY, WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS RIDGING AMPLIFIES ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. A DEEPENING SFC LOW
TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT GIVEN
OVERNIGHT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT, BREEZY BUT DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY/MONDAY. MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED
BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S TO 50S SUNDAY AND
30S TO 40S MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/THURSDAY, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING, THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR VSBYS IN ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH 22Z/THU, PERHAPS WITH
THUNDER AT KPOU. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS LOWER
MI AND THE MIDWEST SHOULD TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE REGION
BETWEEN 04Z-08Z/THU, BRINGING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. IN
THE WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS, A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS (MAINLY CIGS) WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH GREATEST CHANCE
AT KGFL. ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD LIFT BETWEEN 12Z-14Z/THU WITH
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD TREND INTO THE SOUTHWEST BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 5-10 KT WITH SOME GUSTS OF
20-25 KT POSSIBLE AT KPOU, KPSF AND KALB. KGFL WILL GENERALLY
HAVE LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 4-8 KT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 5-10 KT BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER, AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION IN/NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES(YEAR SET):
TODAY APRIL 15:
ALBANY: 86(2003)
GLENS FALLS: 84(2003)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 84(2003)
THURSDAY APRIL 16:
ALBANY: 91(2012)
GLENS FALLS: 89(2002)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 91(2012)
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...24/23
CLIMATE...07
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