238
FXUS61 KALY 160533
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
QUICK UPDATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO RAISE TEMPERATURES IN MOST
AREAS FROM AROUND ALBANY SOUTH. ALSO LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SUNSET DUE TO LACK OF FORCING AND A WELL
MIXED ENVIRONMENT.
07
KEY MESSAGES
1. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING, AND A BETTER CHANCE TOMORROW WITH A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/5) FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD FROM ANY SEVERE STORM BOTH DAYS.
2. TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TREND BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS OF 2:30 PM EDT: EARLIER THIS MORNING, A DECAYING MCS TRACKED
THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH HELPED TO REINFORCE THE THERMAL
GRADIENT ALONG A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS DRAPED NEAR THE
I-90 CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AND DRIFTED
BACK NORTH OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO, BUT THERE IS STILL LARGE
TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH 60S ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS TO LOW 80S NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
WHETHER OR NOT ANY CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IF IT DOES, THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE
FOCUS FOR CI. HOWEVER, LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY ISN'T OVERLY STRONG, AND THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WITH WEAK HEIGHT RISES ALOFT. CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MODEST VERTICAL GROWTH TO THE CU
FIELD TO OUR WEST OVER CENTRAL NY, BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT THAT WE
WOULD LIKE TO SEE TO GIVE US CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION
DEVELOPING. THAT SAID, IF ANY CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP, THE
ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF I-90 IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE WITH 1000-1500
J/KG OF SBCAPE AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. IF ANY STORMS
DEVELOP THEY COULD THEREFORE BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE (PRIMARY
HAZARD GUSTY WINDS), BUT WILL EMPHASIZE THAT THIS THREAT IS
CONDITIONAL UPON CONVECTION ACTUALLY DEVELOPING. EVEN IF STORMS
DEVELOP, EXPECTING COVERAGE TO REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER, UPPER FORCING INCREASES TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE ALOFT
TRACKS ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. A DECAYING MCS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION, BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWALTER VALUES DROP AS LOW AS -2 TO -4, BUT MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED.
THEREFORE, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
TOMORROW, A SFC LOW OUT AHEAD OF A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THIS WILL LIFT THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT, PUTTING OUR ENTIRE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S AND 80S, WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. AS THE SFC LOW
TRACKS EASTWARDS ACROSS UPSTATE NY TOMORROW, A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN,
THE SFC LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW
EVENING, WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER
FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL YIELD 40-50+ KT OF DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR. INSTABILITY ALSO LOOKS SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER, WITH
UP TO 1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND SOME LOCALLY HIGHER POCKETS.
MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL ACT AS THE
MECHANISM TO INITIATE CONVECTION, OR IF THINGS WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT AND BETTER UPPER FORCING ARRIVE IN THE VERY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
REGARDLESS, THE PARAMETER SPACE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE,
ESPECIALLY FOR MID APRIL, SO WE AGREE WITH THE SPC SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. ANY
CELLS THAT DEVELOP WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH COULD INITIALLY
BE DISCRETE, BUT STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST SPLITTING
CELLS/UPSCALE GROWTH, ESPECIALLY AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING WITH
BETTER FORCING ARRIVING. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS, AS
DCAPE VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG, BUT THE
STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS AND FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO SUPPORT A
SECONDARY HAIL THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED OUT,
BUT THERE IS NOT A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND LCLS
MAY BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR DEEP BL MIXING
BEFORE ANY STORMS DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION
WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90, BUT THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
MOST OF THE REST OF OUR REGION. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE WIND AS
STORMS TRACK INTO AN AREA WITH A DEEPLY-MIXED BL, BUT
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WANING BY THIS TIME WITH THE STILL
RELATIVELY EARLY SUNSETS. TIMING FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME TO AND END THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT TRACKS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY, WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS RIDGING AMPLIFIES ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. A DEEPENING SFC LOW
TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT GIVEN
OVERNIGHT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT, BREEZY BUT DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY/MONDAY. MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED
BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S TO 50S SUNDAY AND
30S TO 40S MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS NOW EAST OF KGFL AND KALB, THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING KPOU AND KPSF. OVER THE
NEXT HOUR, IFR VISIBILITY WITHIN RAIN AND THUNDER WILL IMPACT
KPSF AND KPOU AND SOME GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL. BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY, FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH SCT-BKN
CIGS AROUND 4 KFT AND ANOTHER LAYER AROUND 10-15 KFT AS WELL.
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. FOR NOW,
WON'T FORECAST ANY LOW CLOUDS OR FOG, ALTHOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY
RULE IT OUT IF BREAKS IN THE HIGHER CLOUDS WERE TO OCCUR,
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT SAW SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY, FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK VFR FOR MOST
OF THE DAY. SCT-BKN CIGS AROUND 4-6 KFT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS. AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES, SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EVENING, MAINLY BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z. WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM,
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALLOW FOR IFR VISIBILITY AND GUSTY
WINDS OVER 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT KGFL,
KPSF AND KALB, SO WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR THESE SITES, BUT
WILL NOT MENTION FOR KPOU, AS ACTIVITY LOOKS NORTH OF THERE.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES(YEAR SET):
TODAY APRIL 15:
ALBANY: 86(2003) GLENS FALLS: 84(2003)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 90(1941)
THURSDAY APRIL 16:
ALBANY: 91(2012)
GLENS FALLS: 89(2002)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 91(2012)
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...27
CLIMATE...07
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