260
FXUS61 KALY 160707
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
307 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED ENHANCED WORDING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WHEN THERE IS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THIS MATCHES
WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED ITS SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) AND MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THEN, LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY GIVEN PERIOD OF
RAIN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY FOLLOWED BY COLD AIR
ADVECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) AND MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING MAINLY FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90. DAMAGING WINDS,
LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM
ANY SEVERE STORMS.
2. AFTER A STRETCH OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES TREND BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS UNLIKELY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACKED THROUGH EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT, AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN
THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT
HAS BEEN OVERHEAD THE PAST FEW DAYS TO FINALLY LIFT NORTH OF OUR
REGION TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARM SECTOR TO SURGE
NORTHWARD AND LEAD TO ONE FINAL DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS AT LEAST A 50% CHANCE THAT AREAS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF I-90 WILL EXCEED 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH AT
LEAST A 75% CHANCE FOR AREAS IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO EXCEED 85 DEGREES. THIS IS
ABOUT 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID- APRIL. OUR CLIMATE
SECTION SHOWS RECORD HIGHS FOR APRIL 16 WITH POU THE ONLY SITE
THAT MAY NEAR ITS DAILY RECORD TODAY. OTHERWISE, SUBSIDENCE DUE
TO THE BUILDING RIDGE CENTERED WELL TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP OUR
REGION MAINLY DRY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. THERE IS INCREASING
CONSENSUS AMONG THE GUIDANCE THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN HEIGHT FALLS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD ALSO TRACKING EASTWARD. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER TRACKING INTO AREAS
MAINLY FROM I-90 NORTHWARD TODAY WITH THE INVERSION ERODING THIS
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS. THIS
COMBINED WITH A VERY WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL GENERATE
SUFFICIENT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING 1000
- 1500 J/KG DEVELOPING. AS WE REMAIN WITHIN THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF BROAD RIDGING ALOFT, FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR RANGING 40 TO
50KT. THE RATHER UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR THROUGH THE COLUMN AND
FAST FLOW WILL LIKELY ALSO LEAD TO STRAIGHT LINED HODOGRAPHS.
WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY, BOTH THE NAM AND RAP
SUGGEST THAT INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS AND DECREASING SHOWALTER
INDEX VALUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS OR SHORTLY AFTER 21 UTC
WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO INITIATE AROUND A POTENTIAL SUBTLE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DRAPED NEAR I-90. HOWEVER, THE HRRR MAINTAINS
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH 00 UTC SO THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY IF CONVECTIVE INITIATION BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
HOLD UNTIL THIS EVENING. SHOULD CONVECTION START LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, WEAK FORCING COMBINED WITH SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED
SLIGHTLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE WEAK BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT A
STORM CLUSTER STORM MODE. ALTHOUGH OVERALL INSTABILITY VALUES
ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE REMNANT
EML AND HIGH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS LIKELY ALLOWS INSTABILITY TO
EXTEND DEEP THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH DCAPE VALUES RATHER HIGH
NEAR OR GREATER THAN 500 J/KG. WHILE DAMAGING WINDS IS THE
PRIMARY HAZARD FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS, THE STRAIGHT LINED
HODOGRAPHS ALSO INDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED
STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND
SPLITTING CELLS. AS THE MAIN SFC COLD FRONT AND STRONGER HEIGHT
FALLS ARRIVE THIS EVENING, THE STORM MODE SHOULD TRANSITION TO A
MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE PRIMARY
HAZARD FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS. THIS ALL MATCHES WELL WITH THE
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 TO 5) AND MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 TO 5) IN
SPC'S DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOCUSED NEAR/NORTH OF I-90 WHERE
THE STRONGER FORCING ALIGNS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH BY 03 - 06 UTC AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND
THE INSTABILITY FINALLY DIMINISHES.
KEY MESSAGE 2... TEMPERATURES TREND LOWER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
YET REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM. A NOTABLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER
PATTERN THEN ENSUES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A POTENT COLD
FRONT MARCHES EASTWARD RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD
STRATIFORM RAIN. WITH NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
ADVECTING MUCH COOLER AIR EASTWARD ON SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP 20 TO 25 DEGREES COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS AND
REMIND US IT IS STILL ONLY SPRING. IN FACT, RAIN SHOWERS MAY MIX
WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
BEFORE ENDING ON SUNDAY. CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ALSO LOOKS TO FAVOR UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE TACONICS, SOUTHERN GREENS, PARTS OF THE
BERKSHIRES, NORTHERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE
THERE IS A 20 TO 30% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 1 INCH OF SNOW.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATION,
TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE UNLIKELY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS NOW EAST OF KGFL AND KALB, THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING KPOU AND KPSF. OVER THE
NEXT HOUR, IFR VISIBILITY WITHIN RAIN AND THUNDER WILL IMPACT
KPSF AND KPOU AND SOME GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL. BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY, FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH SCT-BKN
CIGS AROUND 4 KFT AND ANOTHER LAYER AROUND 10-15 KFT AS WELL.
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. FOR NOW,
WON'T FORECAST ANY LOW CLOUDS OR FOG, ALTHOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY
RULE IT OUT IF BREAKS IN THE HIGHER CLOUDS WERE TO OCCUR,
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT SAW SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY, FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK VFR FOR MOST
OF THE DAY. SCT-BKN CIGS AROUND 4-6 KFT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS. AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES, SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EVENING, MAINLY BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z. WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM,
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALLOW FOR IFR VISIBILITY AND GUSTY
WINDS OVER 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT KGFL,
KPSF AND KALB, SO WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR THESE SITES, BUT
WILL NOT MENTION FOR KPOU, AS ACTIVITY LOOKS NORTH OF THERE.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES(YEAR SET):
THURSDAY APRIL 16:
ALBANY: 91(2012)
GLENS FALLS: 89(2002)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 91(2012)
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...27
CLIMATE...07
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