777
FXUS61 KALY 162345
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
745 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, BUT THIS DOES INCLUDE INCREASING HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON. CONCERN STILL REMAINS FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. THERE REMAINS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE BEST CHANCE NEAR AND NORTH OF I-
90. DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS.
2. AFTER A STRETCH OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES TREND BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS UNLIKELY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS OF 2:25 PM EDT: CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1004 MB SFC LOW
IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC, WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT HAVING
LIFTED INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY, NORTH OF OUR CWA. THIS PLACES OUR
AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR, WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S OUTSIDE OF THE ADKS, WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 80S
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS EASTWARDS THIS
AFTERNOON, SO WILL AN ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL ALSO APPROACH. THE COMBINATION OF HEIGHT
FALLS ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL FORCING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A FEW CELLS ALREADY DEVELOPING BACK NEAR
SYRACUSE WITH THE SYSTEM'S PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THERE QUESTION
EARLIER TODAY HAS BEEN IF FORCING WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION, OR IF WE WOULD HAVE TO WAIT
FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH LATER THIS
EVENING. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF
AGITATED CU IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADKS, CURRENT THINKING
IS LEANING TOWARDS AT LEAST ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH BY 3-4 PM, WHICH ALIGNS WITH
MOST CAM GUIDANCE.
THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT SHOWS 1000-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION, ALTHOUGH MIXED LAYER CAPE IS LOWER AT 500-1000 J/KG.
18Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS ONLY ~600 J/KG OF SBCAPE, BUT THIS MAY BE
UNDERDONE DUE TO THE SFC TEMPERATURE BEING ~5 DEGREES F COOLER AT
THE TIME IT WAS LAUNCHED VS THE CURRENT OBS. SPC MESOANALYSIS ALSO
SHOWS >50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AT THIS
TIME, WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOST OF THIS SHEAR IS
UNIDIRECTIONAL. THIS DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILE WILL ALLOW FOR ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO BECOME
SUPERCELLULAR, WITH LONG STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SPLITTING CELLS. DCAPE VALUES RIGHT NOW ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, BUT DCAPE IS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE BL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
PRIMARY THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, BUT STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (ALMOST 7C/KM PER
THE 18Z KALY SOUNDING), WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND 10 KFT, AND STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS ALL INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR LARGE (>1"
DIAMETER) HAIL WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED, OUT, THE
LACK OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND RELATIVELY HIGH LCLS SUGGEST THAT
THE RISK FOR TORNADOES IS ON THE LOWER SIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOULD ANY TORNADOES OCCUR, THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY (MORE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND LOWER LCLS) OR IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
WHERE LOCALLY BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW DUE TO TERRAIN CHANNELING
WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY INCREASED LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.
COLD FRONT AND BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING TOWARDS
SUNSET. THE BETTER FORCING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LINE OF CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP, BUT THIS WILL BE STARTING TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INTO OUR
REGION AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
NEVERTHELESS, THERE WILL STILL BE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS AS THEY WILL BE MOVING INTO A WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WITH AN INVERTED V SOUNDING FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
COLD POOLS/DOWNDRAFTS. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EXTEND, BUT THE AREA
OUTLINED BY THE SPC MARGINAL RISK LOOKS LIKE A VERY REASONABLE
APPROXIMATION. THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY, BUT LINGERING SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FRIDAY, SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING, FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION WITH
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT
OVERHEAD. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. TRANQUIL WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
OVER OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, BUT WILL BE
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, A STRONG (SUB 990 MB) SFC LOW TRACKING
NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER TO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. 06 AND 12Z GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE FRONT SUNDAY, WHICH WILL HELP TO SLOW THE FRONT DOWN AND
KEEP LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY. WITH
COLD AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION, PRECIP WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO
SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS, WHERE MINOR SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY
MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY LOOKS QUITE CHILLY (HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
40S) AND BREEZY, BUT MAINLY DRY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOMEWHAT
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A SFC HIGH
BUILDING OVER THE REGION, BUT A CLIPPER SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/SAT...VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE AT ALL TAF
SITES. THERE REMAINS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AT KALB/KGFL/KPSF UNTIL 04Z/FRI WHERE
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR. OTHERWISE, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE SITES BETWEEN
05-10Z/FRI WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR FOR MOST SITES. AFTER THE
SHOWERS END, MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY LINGER WITH KPSF POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO IFR CIGS. GRADUAL LIFT OF CIGS IS EXPECTED AFTER
12Z/FRI ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS, MAINLY AT KPSF.
GRADUAL CLEARING IS THEN EXPECTED AROUND AND AFTER 18Z/FRI WITH
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM OR OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
AT 5-10 KT TONIGHT THEN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FRIDAY MORNING
AT AROUND 10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES(YEAR SET):
THURSDAY APRIL 16:
ALBANY: 91(2012)
GLENS FALLS: 89(2002)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 91(2012)
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...33
CLIMATE...07
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