455
FXUS61 KALY 180506
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
106 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED WIND/WIND GUSTS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY,
AND LOWERED SATURDAY AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY, ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY,
MIXING WITH/CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY.
2) HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD MIN TEMPS DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN DEPARTING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, GREATEST WITHIN
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY, SW ADIRONDACKS, AND HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS OF THE TACONICS/SOUTHERN VT. WINDS THEN SHIFT INTO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST WITH/BEHIND COLD FRONT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH
SIMILAR WIND GUSTS (25-35 MPH) EXPECTED, STRONGEST/MOST
PERSISTENT WITHIN THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING. AS COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION, PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET, WHERE SOME
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ON COLDER SURFACES.
EVEN IN VALLEY AREAS, SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN AT TIMES BEFORE
SHOWERS TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY, BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
THE 40S FOR MOST VALLEY AREAS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
WITH BRISK WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER (WIND CHILLS MAINLY
IN THE 30S DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S
AT NIGHT). OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT, AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT WHEN WIDESPREAD
20S ARE EXPECTED WITH EVEN SOME TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...AS OF 1:05 AM EDT, FLYING CONDITIONS RE VFR AT
ALL TERMINALS, BUT CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME PATCHY MVFR
STRATUS BETWEEN 2000-3500 FT ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT ALB/GFL, WITH THIS STRATUS THROUGH
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THEN, ANY LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE MIXES OUT WITH SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND THIS EVENING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING MORE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH A LINE OF
SHOWERS TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS EXPECTED WITHIN THESE SHOWERS, AND THE MVFR STRATUS MAY
REDEVELOP AT POU/PSF AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT,
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT FROM THE SE THIS MORNING AND 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT FROM THE SE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING FOR POU/PSF/GFL WITH WINDS REMAINING
AROUND 10 KT. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED LLWS AT GFL/PSF AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS TO 35-40 KT FROM THE S/SW TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. AT ALB, SFC WINDS REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT LLWS
CONCERNS, WHILE AT POU THE LOE-LEVEL JET IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG THUS NO MENTION OF LLWS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 32 KTS. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24/31
AVIATION...35
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