951
FXUS61 KALY 190521
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
121 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINDS WERE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF THE NBM GUIDANCE. WET SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE
INCREASED SLIGHTLY GREATER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SOME ONE
INCH OR SO AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION TIMING AND QPF TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW. ANY MEASURABLE SNOW ON THE GRASSY SURFACES WILL LIKELY
BE AT 1500 FT ELEVATION OR GREATER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS END THIS AFTERNOON, AS A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT BRINGS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
WITH COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS. NO MAJOR IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH
ANY ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
2) ALTHOUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL START OUT UNSEASONABLY COLD,
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY LATER IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH NY AND NEW ENGLAND
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TONIGHT. THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS MADE IT
MILD LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S AND LOWER TO MID
70S. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS WERE INCREASED TO 20-30 MPH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE CONFLUENT AREA OF THE
CAPITAL REGION IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME LOWER STRATUS HAS BACKED IN OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREENS, BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
UNTIL TONIGHT, WHEN THE CAMS SHOWS SHOWERS IMPACTING THE W/SW
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY
IS PRESENT, SO THUNDER WAS KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST.
THE SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS STRONG WITH THE FRONT WITH SOME UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT. A WEAK WAVE MAY MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TOWARDS DAYBREAK,
AND THE COLD FRONT SHOWS SOME ANA-FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH
THE PCPN IN THE WAKE OF THE WINDSHIFT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S. TEMPS
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME WET-BULB COOLING OVER THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND HIGH PEAKS OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS FOR SOME WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY DAYBREAK. PWATS
INCREASE TO 1 TO 2+ STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECTING A MODEST QPF
EVENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A QUARTER TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH
EXPECTED.
TOMORROW MORNING, SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING AND SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A TRANSITION TO SNOW TO AROUND 1500
FT IN ELEVATION. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS MAY OCCUR OVER THE
GRASSY SURFACES. SOME WET SNOW FLAKES MAY MIX IN OVER THE VALLEY
FLOORS IF TEMPS COOL ENOUGH FORM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND
WEST. THE LATEST 24-HR NBM PROBABILITIES SHOW THE BEST CHANCE
> 1" OF SNOW FOR THE PERIOD ENDING 8 PM SUNDAY IS OVER THE
SOUTHERN DACKS, HIGH PEAKS OF THE CATSKILLS, BERKSHIRES AND
SOUTHERN GREENS WHERE PROBS ARE 25-50%. MOST LOCATIONS ABOVE
1500 FT WILL RECEIVE A COATING TO A HALF INCH. SPOTS IN THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DACKS COULD GET AN INCH OR TWO AT BEST. WARMEST
TEMPS WILL BE DURING THE MORNING, AS THEY WILL FALL OR STEADY
IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIMES HIGHS WILL ONLY
BE IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE PCPN ENDS IN THE MID TO LATE PM. IT
WILL BRISK AND COLD COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUST 25-30
MPH DUE TO DEEPER MIXING AND THE TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
NEAR THE REGION.
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAY OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH A DISTURBANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMS (A
DUSTING TO FEW TENTHS AT BEST) WITH LOWS FALLING BACK TO THE 20S
TO LOWER 30S. THE WINDS SHOULD DRY OUT THE SURFACES, BUT A FEW
ISOLATED SPOTS COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE WORK WEEK STARTS OUT ON A CHILLY NOTE WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUING OVER THE REGION. A FEW LAKE EFFECT OR WEST/NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE SNOW AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS. H850 TEMPS FALL -2 TO -3 STDEVS BELOW NORMAL
MON-MON NIGHT ACCORDING TO THE NAEFS WITH THE ACTUAL H850 TEMPS
AROUND -10C. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES OR SO BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 20S TO 30S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH BRISK CONDITIONS. IT WILL BE VERY
COLD NIGHT FOR MID TO LATE APRIL WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S IN THE VALLEYS AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE GROWING SEASON DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL MAY 1ST FOR THE
MAJOR VALLEYS IN THE ALY FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
TUE, AS MAX TEMPS WILL WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER, BUT STILL RUN
BELOW NORMAL BY 5-10 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE DIVES ACROSS THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS TUE NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING. A WEAK SFC TROUGH AND A WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH
WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK FOR TEMPS ON WED CLOSER TO NORMAL READINGS
WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS AND 40S TO AROUND 50F
OVER THE MTNS AND HILLS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THU INTO
FRI FOR POTENTIALLY A DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPS WARMING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BASED ON THE NBM AND WPC GUIDANCE. A
DISTURBANCE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS BACK TO FORECAST AREA BY THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...AS OF 1:20 AM EDT...VFR CONDITIONS STILL AT
ALB/GFL WITH SHOWERS AROUND, WHILE POU AND PSF HAVE SEEN MVFR CIGS
FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. TREND THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WILL BE
FOR INCREASING SHOWERS AND CIGS / VSBYS BOTH TO TREND DOWN TO MVFR,
WITH SOME IFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE ON IFR OCCURRENCE, WITH THE BEST
CHANCE AT POU/PSF. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 11-14Z,
WINDS WILL PICK UP HELPING TO MIX OUT SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH CIGS TRENDING BACK TO MVFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH 20-22Z WITH STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE ALSO ADDED A
PROB30 GROUP AT PSF TO ALLOW RAIN TO END AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH IFR
VSBYS AND CIGS. ONCE RAIN ENDS, FLYING CONDITIONS QUICKLY TREND BACK
TO VFR WITH BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT AFTER SUNSET.
S/SE WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS OF 15-25 KT (STRONGEST AT ALB)
EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THEN, WINDS ABRUPTLY SWITCH TO THE W/NW AT AROUND 10 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 15-25 KT AT POU/PSF/ALB BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. GUSTS SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BACK
TO 4-8 KT FROM THE WEST FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...35
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