875
FXUS61 KALY 190606
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
206 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE FOR WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON, AS A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE WIND GUSTS TO REACH
20 TO 30 MPH IN MANY AREAS.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY STILL LOOKS LIMITED TO JUST HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS, WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
PEAKS. HAVE EXPANDED THE COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES FOR MONDAY DUE TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, BUT
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT WILL BE RETURNING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK
TO THE REGION TODAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS, ALTHOUGH ANY MINOR ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
2) ALTHOUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL START OUT UNSEASONABLY COLD,
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY LATER IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OVERSPREADING THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NEW YORK STATE MESONET AND ASOS
OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION,
ALTHOUGH THE COOLER AIR IS NOT FAR AWAY, WITH UPSTREAM TEMPS
DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE REACHING WESTERN AREAS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEFORE CROSSING THE HUDSON VALLEY AROUND DAYBREAK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS. AS THE FRONT
CROSSES, TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRASHING DOWN IN THE 40S FOR MOST
AREAS, WITH SOME 30S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
BOUNDARY, THIS WILL ALLOW PERIODS OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE EVEN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE PRECIP MAY GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH ALL AREAS
FINALLY DONE BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH THE COOLER AIR
ARRIVING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE TO WET
SNOW FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS (MAINLY ABOUT 1000-1500 FT). ANY
MINOR ACCUMULATION (COATING TO AN INCH) WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN, WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS OVER THE PEAKS. THIS
SNOW ACCUMULATION WON'T HAVE ANY IMPACTS ON TRAVEL DUE TO BEING
LIMITED TO THESE VERY HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COOLER AIR ARRIVING ALOFT,
PROMOTING GOOD MIXING. SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPS WILL BE FALLING INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S FOR TONIGHT.
ANY LINGERING WET SURFACES COULD BECOME SLICK, ALTHOUGH THIS
PROBABLY WON'T BE TOO WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE BREEZY CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE, IT WILL FEEL RATHER CHILLY CONSIDERING THE RECENT
WARM WEATHER AND THERE WILL BE A NEED FOR COATS AND JACKETS TO
RETURN AFTER THE MILD WEATHER OF THE PAST WEEK.
ON MONDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD, WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS AS LOW AS -8 TO -10 C. SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING
HOURS, ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED, BUT SOME PASSING FLAKES ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE BASED ON THE LATEST CAMS. TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
30S TO UPPER 40S BY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR MANY LOCATIONS. CHILLY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE DRY AND CLEAR WITH LITTLE TO
NO WIND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ALTHOUGH THE WEEK WILL START OUT VERY CHILLY ON MONDAY, THERE
SHOULD BE SOME MODERATIONS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD. STILL, TEMPS APPEAR TO BE BELOW
NORMAL FOR BOTH DAYS, WITH DAYTIME TEMPS ONLY IN THE 50S. A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY THANKS TO A COLD FRONT, BUT TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE LATE WEEK, WITH
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW WARM IT WILL GET BY
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, AS MODELS DISAGREE ON WHERE A RIDGE
AXIS SETS UP, AS A CLOSED LOW WILL ALSO BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
FOR NOW, WILL STICK WITH THE NBM, WHICH SUGGESTS TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATE WEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...AS OF 1:20 AM EDT...VFR CONDITIONS STILL AT
ALB/GFL WITH SHOWERS AROUND, WHILE POU AND PSF HAVE SEEN MVFR CIGS
FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. TREND THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WILL BE
FOR INCREASING SHOWERS AND CIGS / VSBYS BOTH TO TREND DOWN TO MVFR,
WITH SOME IFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE ON IFR OCCURRENCE, WITH THE BEST
CHANCE AT POU/PSF. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 11-14Z,
WINDS WILL PICK UP HELPING TO MIX OUT SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH CIGS TRENDING BACK TO MVFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH 20-22Z WITH STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE ALSO ADDED A
PROB30 GROUP AT PSF TO ALLOW RAIN TO END AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH IFR
VSBYS AND CIGS. ONCE RAIN ENDS, FLYING CONDITIONS QUICKLY TREND BACK
TO VFR WITH BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT AFTER SUNSET.
S/SE WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS OF 15-25 KT (STRONGEST AT ALB)
EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THEN, WINDS ABRUPTLY SWITCH TO THE W/NW AT AROUND 10 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 15-25 KT AT POU/PSF/ALB BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. GUSTS SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BACK
TO 4-8 KT FROM THE WEST FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...35
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