488
FXUS61 KALY 191747
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
147 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 907 AM EDT...QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST AS THE RAIN HAS
TRANSITIONED TO SNOW THE PAST FEW HOURS BASED ON THE NYS
MESONET CAMS IN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. SOME ACCUMULATION ON THE GRASSY
SURFACES AT PLACES LIKE OLD FORGE. SNOW SEEMS TO BE OCCURRING
AT ELEVATIONS DOWN TO 1500 TO 2000 FT. WE UPDATED THE HOURLY
TEMPS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS WITH A SLIGHTLY QUICKER COOL DOWN
AND MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO SNOW AMOUNTS WITH 1-2" POSSIBLE
IN PARTS OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT WILL BE RETURNING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK
TO THE REGION TODAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS, ALTHOUGH ANY MINOR ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
2) ALTHOUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL START OUT UNSEASONABLY COLD,
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY LATER IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OVERSPREADING THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NEW YORK STATE MESONET AND ASOS
OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION,
ALTHOUGH THE COOLER AIR IS NOT FAR AWAY, WITH UPSTREAM TEMPS
DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE REACHING WESTERN AREAS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEFORE CROSSING THE HUDSON VALLEY AROUND DAYBREAK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS. AS THE FRONT
CROSSES, TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRASHING DOWN IN THE 40S FOR MOST
AREAS, WITH SOME 30S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
BOUNDARY, THIS WILL ALLOW PERIODS OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE EVEN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE PRECIP MAY GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH ALL AREAS
FINALLY DONE BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH THE COOLER AIR
ARRIVING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE TO WET
SNOW FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS (MAINLY ABOUT 1000-1500 FT). ANY
MINOR ACCUMULATION (COATING TO AN INCH) WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN, WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS OVER THE PEAKS. THIS
SNOW ACCUMULATION WON'T HAVE ANY IMPACTS ON TRAVEL DUE TO BEING
LIMITED TO THESE VERY HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COOLER AIR ARRIVING ALOFT,
PROMOTING GOOD MIXING. SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPS WILL BE FALLING INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S FOR TONIGHT.
ANY LINGERING WET SURFACES COULD BECOME SLICK, ALTHOUGH THIS
PROBABLY WON'T BE TOO WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE BREEZY CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE, IT WILL FEEL RATHER CHILLY CONSIDERING THE RECENT
WARM WEATHER AND THERE WILL BE A NEED FOR COATS AND JACKETS TO
RETURN AFTER THE MILD WEATHER OF THE PAST WEEK.
ON MONDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD, WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS AS LOW AS -8 TO -10 C. SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING
HOURS, ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED, BUT SOME PASSING FLAKES ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE BASED ON THE LATEST CAMS. TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
30S TO UPPER 40S BY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR MANY LOCATIONS. CHILLY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE DRY AND CLEAR WITH LITTLE TO
NO WIND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ALTHOUGH THE WEEK WILL START OUT VERY CHILLY ON MONDAY, THERE
SHOULD BE SOME MODERATIONS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD. STILL, TEMPS APPEAR TO BE BELOW
NORMAL FOR BOTH DAYS, WITH DAYTIME TEMPS ONLY IN THE 50S. A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY THANKS TO A COLD FRONT, BUT TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE LATE WEEK, WITH
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW WARM IT WILL GET BY
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, AS MODELS DISAGREE ON WHERE A RIDGE
AXIS SETS UP, AS A CLOSED LOW WILL ALSO BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
FOR NOW, WILL STICK WITH THE NBM, WHICH SUGGESTS TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATE WEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE MVFR/IFR
FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN AND SNOW WITH THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR CAPE
COD. THE IFR CONDITIONS ARE CIGS/VSBYS AT KPOU/KPSF...AND WHERE
VSBYS AND CIGS ARE REDUCED DUE TO SOME WET SNOW AT KPSF. EXPECT
AN IMPROVEMENT TO HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR BETWEEN
20-22Z/SUN FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU WITH RAIN DIMINISHING. KPSF MAY
HAVE LINGERING MVFR CIGS CLOSE TO 00Z/MON. TONIGHT, EXPECT THE
SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, IN THE WAKE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT,
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH MONDAY MORNING
WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING. BASES MAY LOWER TO 3.5-5
KFT AGL BY THE LATE MORNING WITH A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
APPROACHING KPOU/KPSF PRIOR TO 18Z/MON.
THE WINDS WILL VARY FROM THE NORTH TO WEST 8-15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25 KT AT KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
AROUND 10 KT IN THE LATE MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
AT KALB.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27/15
AVIATION...15
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