289
FXUS61 KALY 200511
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE HOURLY POPS WERE ADJUSTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT WITH THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR CAPE COD.
SNOW AMOUNTS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE NYS MESONET
CAMS AND OBSERVATIONS, WHERE SOME 1-2" OR SO AMOUNTS FOR THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, SOUTHERN GREEN AND HIGH PEAKS OF THE
CATSKILLS MAY OCCUR. WINDS WERE INCREASED TOMORROW WITH THE NBM
90TH PERCENTILE WIND AND GUSTS. ALSO, HOURLY POPS WERE
INCREASED FROM THE NBM FOR THE SHORT-WAVE AND LAKE EFFECT
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW TEMPS WERE LOWERED MON NIGHT
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE NBM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT,
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD. ANY
ADDITIONAL HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT.
2) THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL START OUT UNSEASONABLY COLD FOR
APRIL, BUT TEMPS WILL MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST
CANADA, THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE
PRELIMINARY COLD FRONT ALONG EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN AND SNOW IS LIFTING
NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD. THE PCPN CHANGED OVER THE SNOW FOR
ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1500 FT WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS NOTED ON
NUMEROUS NYS WEB CAMS ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS, EASTERN CATSKILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE HELDERBERGS.
EXPECTING 1-2 OR SO INCHES OVER THE HIGH PEAKS, EVEN THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS. THE HILLTOWNS AT 1500 FT OR SO COULD SEE A
HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ESPECIALLY ON THE GRASSY SURFACES.
LOCATIONS BELOW 1500 FT MAY GET A COATING TO A FEW TENTHS ON THE
GRASS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS 25-35 MPH. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
INITIAL LOW. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD ADVECTION AND SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS
TONIGHT. A LIGHT COATING TO FEW TENTH ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THE
COLD ADVECTION AND H850 TEMPS FALLING 1-2+ STDEVS BELOW NORMAL,
AS LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE WINDS SHOULD
DRY OUT THE ROADS, BUT BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR A FEW SLICK SPOTS.
THE WEEK WILL OPEN WITH CHILLY TEMPS, AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS. ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY BRING
SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO
LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION, SOUTHERN VT SOUTH AND EAST.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS, THOUGH WE DID
RAISE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE RANGE (15-30%).
H850 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -10C, WHICH ARE A COUPLE STDEVS BELOW
NORMAL FOR APRIL. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS, AS WELL AS THE
SOUTHERN TACONICS AND NW CT WITH 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MON NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WOULD BE A HARD FREEZE, BUT THE GROWING SEASON DOES OFFICIALLY
BEGIN IN THE VALLEY AREAS AND NW CT UNTIL MAY 1ST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON TUE, AS
MAX TEMPS WILL WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER, BUT STILL RUN BELOW
NORMAL BY 5-10 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE DIVES ACROSS THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUE
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED IN TERMS OF SNOW
ACCUMS WITH LITTLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A WEAK SFC
TROUGH AND A WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK FOR
TEMPS ON WED CLOSER TO NORMAL READINGS WITH MID 50S TO NEAR 60F IN
THE VALLEYS AND 40S TO AROUND 50F OVER THE MTNS AND HILLS.
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FOR THU INTO MOST
OF FRI FOR POTENTIALLY A DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPS WARMING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BASED ON THE NBM AND WPC
GUIDANCE. A DISTURBANCE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND A WARM
FRONT MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BACK TO FORECAST AREA FOR
LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE LATE APRIL TEMPS.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
RIDGING AND SUBSEQUENT DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG THE RIM OF THE
RIDGE IN THE ENSEMBLES AND LONG TERM GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
FOR POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED
-SHRASN THAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH A COOL POOL
ALOFT. SKIES STARTING OUT MOSTLY CLEAR, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
OCCURRING THIS MORNING AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT APPROACHES. CLOUDS
WILL THEN DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE WESTERLY AROUND
3-6 KT, BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 9-13 KT WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...07
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