396
FXUS61 KALY 200540
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
140 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH LITTLE
CHANGE TO OUR FORECAST MESSAGING. WE CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST CHANGES FROM NBM GUIDANCE INCLUDING RAISING POPS TODAY,
INCREASING WIND GUSTS TODAY, AND GOING COLDER FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW/GRAUPEL SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY.
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TREND BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ASIDE FROM A
FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY, MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AS OF 1:40 AM EDT...CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS
A COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS COLD FRONT IS TRACKING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
SOMEWHAT NARROW ALBEIT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH EASILY SEEN
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON GOES 16 WV IMAGERY. WHILE SKIES
ARE RELATIVELY CLEAR NOW, SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND A FEW
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S.
TODAY, THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. SFC TEMPS WARM INTO THE 30S(TERRAIN) AND 40S
(VALLEYS), BUT 500 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW -30C. WE ARE
THEREFORE EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES/DEEP MIXING, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME GRAUPEL
WITHIN THESE SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL. SOME RAIN MAY ALSO MIX IN FOR THE
IMMEDIATE RIVER VALLEY AREAS. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90, AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS/HELDERBERGS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATION WITH ANY OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS.
SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
POOL TRACK OFF TO OUR EAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, SO WE WENT BELOW NBM
GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 10S FOR MANY HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AND
20S FOR THE VALLEYS. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, GFL AND POU
COULD GET WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF THEIR RESPECTIVE DAILY RECORD
LOWS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TUESDAY, THE SFC HIGH STARTS OFF OVERHEAD, BUT
SLIDES OFF TO THE E/SE ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO TURN MORE TO THE
S/SW WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 40S (TERRAIN) TO LOW-
MID 50S (VALLEYS). MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH NW
SUBSIDENCE AND NW FLOW ALOFT. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD END AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO MODERATE INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS,
POSSIBLY TO AROUND 60 FOR THE I-84 CORRIDOR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, FLOW PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES MORE BLOCKED,
WITH RIDGING JUST UPSTREAM OF OUR REGION AND UPPER LOWS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE. WE WILL THEREFORE BE IN AN AREA OF
PERSISTENT DRY NW FLOW ALOFT AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE, WITH A
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL WITH
OUR PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER RIDGE, ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE AXIS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN W/SW OF OUR REGION.
NEXT WEEKEND, MOST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW THE
RIDGE PINCHING OFF ALOFT WELL TO OUR NORTH IN CANADA, WITH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING TOWARDS OUR
REGION FROM THE WEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL
BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH
DETAILS/TIMING REMAIN UNCERTAIN GIVEN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND
CONVOLUTED NATURE OF THE FLOW CONFIGURATION ALOFT. WPC LARGELY
WENT WITH NBM TEMPERATURES (WHICH REMAIN NEAR NORMAL) FOR THIS
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
FOR POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED
-SHRASN THAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH A COOL POOL
ALOFT. SKIES STARTING OUT MOSTLY CLEAR, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
OCCURRING THIS MORNING AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT APPROACHES. CLOUDS
WILL THEN DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE WESTERLY AROUND
3-6 KT, BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 9-13 KT WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...07
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