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FXUS61 KALY 211905
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
305 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MID DAY TOMORROW AS
THE PRECIPITATION LINGERS LATER INTO THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING AROUND AVERAGE
FOR LATE APRIL.
2) THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MAY LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING IN SOME
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH AIR IN PLACE
INITIALLY THAT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET OR SO WOULD SEE SNOW
SHOWERS BUT RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE SNOW CHANCES ARE SHORT
LIVED AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BY SUNRISE
TOMORROW. TOMORROW MORNING, A BROAD, OPEN 500 MB SHORTWAVE DROPS
INTO THE REGION, STALLING THE WARM FRONT AND KEEPING
PRECIPITATION LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRE MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE RAIN SHOWERS
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE FRONT
ACTUALLY STALLS COMPLETELY AND KEEPS UPSLOPE RAIN AND DRIZZLE
GOING.
THE REST OF THE WEEK, EASTERN NY AND FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
WILL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY
OCCLUDES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. A RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL US NUDGES
IN JUST FAR ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION AND KEEP THE
REGION DRY. WITH THE WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT BUT STRONG
SOLAR HEATING IN APRIL, DAY TIME HIGHS WILL LARGELY BE STEADY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FORECAST MODELS ON THURSDAY SHOW A WEAK SURFACE LOW OFF OF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE
TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. DRY AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NW
JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WITH MIN RHS POTENTIALLY DOWN
AROUND 30%. THIS DRY NW FLOW PATTERN PERSIST INTO FRIDAY THOUGH
THE WINDS AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THOUGH MIN
RH WILL BE SIMILAR.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z THIS EVENING.
TRENDS WITH THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT HAVE BEEN SLOWER SO THE
START OF THE RAIN WAS PUSHED BACK AN HOUR FOR PSF AND POU AND 2
HOURS FOR ALB AND GFL. THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY IN HOW LOW THE
CIGS WILL GET SO LEFT SOME PROB30S FOR NOW BUT IF RAIN CAN BE
HEAVY ENOUGH THEN MORE WIDESPREAD IFR/NEAR IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE. RAIN SHOWERS ALSO LOOK TO HANG AROUND LONGER TOMORROW
MORNING WITH LOW CIGS HANGING AROUND INTO THE LATE MORNING AT
LEAST.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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