077
FXUS61 KALY 220001
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
801 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MID DAY TOMORROW AS
THE PRECIPITATION LINGERS LATER INTO THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING AROUND AVERAGE
FOR LATE APRIL.
2) THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MAY LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING IN SOME
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH AIR IN PLACE
INITIALLY THAT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET OR SO WOULD SEE SNOW
SHOWERS BUT RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE SNOW CHANCES ARE SHORT
LIVED AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BY SUNRISE
TOMORROW. TOMORROW MORNING, A BROAD, OPEN 500 MB SHORTWAVE DROPS
INTO THE REGION, STALLING THE WARM FRONT AND KEEPING
PRECIPITATION LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRE MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE RAIN SHOWERS
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE FRONT
ACTUALLY STALLS COMPLETELY AND KEEPS UPSLOPE RAIN AND DRIZZLE
GOING.
THE REST OF THE WEEK, EASTERN NY AND FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
WILL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY
OCCLUDES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. A RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL US NUDGES
IN JUST FAR ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION AND KEEP THE
REGION DRY. WITH THE WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT BUT STRONG
SOLAR HEATING IN APRIL, DAY TIME HIGHS WILL LARGELY BE STEADY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FORECAST MODELS ON THURSDAY SHOW A WEAK SURFACE LOW OFF OF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE
TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. DRY AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NW
JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WITH MIN RHS POTENTIALLY DOWN
AROUND 30%. THIS DRY NW FLOW PATTERN PERSIST INTO FRIDAY THOUGH
THE WINDS AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THOUGH MIN
RH WILL BE SIMILAR.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 00 UTC THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z
THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS. THEN, SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING WARM FRONT FIRST REACH POU BETWEEN BETWEEN 03 TO 06
UTC BEFORE SPREADING NORTH AND EASTWARD TO ALB, PSF, AND GFL
TOWARDS 09 - 12 UTC. CIGS LIKELY TREND DOWNWARDS TO MVFR AT PSF,
GFL, AND ALB BY 09 - 15 UTC WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR INCREASED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN MVFR CIGS BY 12 TO 14 UTC. SHOWERS
LOOK HEAVIEST AT POU AND PSF WITH PSF EVEN MIXING WITH SNOW FOR
A FEW HOURS 09 - 12 UTC WHERE WE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE THROUGH 15 UTC
BEFORE SHOWERS DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY 15 - 18
UTC. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW STRATUS RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS
LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE,
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TURN BREEZY TONIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
5-15KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20-25KTS. BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
TREND WEAKER BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...07
CLIMATE...31
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