168
FXUS61 KALY 220516
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
116 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MID DAY TOMORROW AS
THE PRECIPITATION LINGERS LATER INTO THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING AROUND AVERAGE
FOR LATE APRIL.
2) THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MAY LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING IN SOME
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH AIR IN PLACE
INITIALLY THAT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET OR SO WOULD SEE SNOW
SHOWERS BUT RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE SNOW CHANCES ARE SHORT
LIVED AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BY SUNRISE
TOMORROW. TOMORROW MORNING, A BROAD, OPEN 500 MB SHORTWAVE DROPS
INTO THE REGION, STALLING THE WARM FRONT AND KEEPING
PRECIPITATION LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRE MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE RAIN SHOWERS
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE FRONT
ACTUALLY STALLS COMPLETELY AND KEEPS UPSLOPE RAIN AND DRIZZLE
GOING.
THE REST OF THE WEEK, EASTERN NY AND FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
WILL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY
OCCLUDES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. A RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL US NUDGES
IN JUST FAR ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION AND KEEP THE
REGION DRY. WITH THE WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT BUT STRONG
SOLAR HEATING IN APRIL, DAY TIME HIGHS WILL LARGELY BE STEADY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FORECAST MODELS ON THURSDAY SHOW A WEAK SURFACE LOW OFF OF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE
TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. DRY AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NW
JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WITH MIN RHS POTENTIALLY DOWN
AROUND 30%. THIS DRY NW FLOW PATTERN PERSIST INTO FRIDAY THOUGH
THE WINDS AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THOUGH MIN
RH WILL BE SIMILAR.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR AT ALL TERMINALS
AS OF 1:15 AM EDT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE W/SW
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, LASTING THROUGH EARLY TO MID-MORNING.
MAINLY LOW-END VFR TO HIGH-END MVFR VSBYS WITHING SHOWERS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, CIGS LOOK TO TREND DOWN TO MVFR/FUEL ALTERNATE BY AROUND OR
JUST AFTER SUNRISE FOR ALL TERMINALS. SOME POCKETS OF IFR CAN'T BE
RULED OUT FOR A FEW HOURS FROM 11-15Z, ESPECIALLY AT GFL/PSF, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IFR CIGS IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. ANY IFR CIGS RISE BY MID TO LATE MORNING, BUT PREVAILING
MVFR STRATUS 1500-2500 FT EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD, CIGS LOOK TO LOWER AGAIN TO LOW-END MVFR TO IFR. WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE S/SE AT AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THIS MORNING, THEN
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT (LOCALLY 20-25 KT AT
ALB) THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS AFTER 00Z
THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WFO BGM
AVIATION...35
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