840
FXUS61 KALY 220537
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOL, CLOUDY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS TAPERING OFF
THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY, MAINLY
SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY, ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
2) THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD
TO AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WITH A WARM FRONT POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH/WEST OF OUR REGION,
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. RADAR INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST, ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE BETWEEN 10-20
DEGREES SO THERE IS LIKELY MORE VIRGA THAN PRECIP REACHING THE
GROUND AT THE MOMENT. AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS, MORE PRECIP SHOULD
REACH THE GROUND INTO THIS MORNING. EXPECTING MAINLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE EXCEPT MORE NUMEROUS FROM AROUND KINGSTON SOUTH. PRECIP
COULD FALL AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS IN
THE S. GREENS AND BERKSHIRES, BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
ONLY A COATING ON SOME GRASSY SURFACES. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DISSIPATES.
WITH THE WARM FRONT NOT ADVANCING NORTH THOUGH, WE WILL BE STUCK
IN A COOL/CLOUDY REGIME THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S, WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES EAST
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE ON SATURDAY, AS A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. OUR AREA SHOULD BE ALONG THE
NE PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN
POTENTIALLY KEEPING MUCH OF OUR AREA DRY, AS THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE MAY BE SOUTH/WEST. WILL STICK TO NBM POPS FOR
NOW WITH 25-35% FOR AREAS SOUTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
< 15% NORTH/EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, AS A SHIFT IN THE BLOCKING PATTERN COULD RESULT IN
THE TRACK OF THE WAVE SHIFTING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ELEVATED RISK OF
FIRE SPREAD ON THURSDAY, DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST,
WITH RH VALUES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 28-38% RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-25 MPH AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. THESE VALUES LOOK TO FALL SHORT OF
RED FLAG THRESHOLDS, BUT A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED DEPENDING ON IF FUELS BECOME RECEPTIVE. THERE WILL BE
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUDY SKIES TODAY, ALTHOUGH SKIES
WILL TURN MOSTLY SUNNY ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR AT ALL
TERMINALS AS OF 1:15 AM EDT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING IN
FROM THE W/SW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. SHOWERS
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, LASTING THROUGH
EARLY TO MID-MORNING. MAINLY LOW-END VFR TO HIGH-END MVFR VSBYS
WITHING SHOWERS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, CIGS LOOK TO TREND DOWN TO
MVFR/FUEL ALTERNATE BY AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE FOR ALL
TERMINALS. SOME POCKETS OF IFR CAN'T BE RULED OUT FOR A FEW
HOURS FROM 11-15Z, ESPECIALLY AT GFL/PSF, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IFR CIGS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. ANY
IFR CIGS RISE BY MID TO LATE MORNING, BUT PREVAILING MVFR
STRATUS 1500-2500 FT EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD,
CIGS LOOK TO LOWER AGAIN TO LOW-END MVFR TO IFR. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE S/SE AT AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THIS MORNING, THEN
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT (LOCALLY 20-25 KT
AT ALB) THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS
AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...35
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