258
FXUS61 KALY 221821
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
221 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG FOR THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT DUE TO
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS TO THE LOWER END OF THE BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON HOURS WITHIN THE DEEPEST MIXING OF
THE DAY. IN ADDITION, ADJUSTED WIND GUSTS HIGHER FOR THURSDAY
BASED ON THE EXPECTED DEEPER MIXING AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WILL
LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY.
2) ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY RETURN TO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY, NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DESPITE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR TONIGHT, RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY ON THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. DEEP MIXING TO ABOUT 800 HPA WILL ALLOW
RH VALUES TO DROP AS LOW AS 25 TO 35 PERCENT ON THURSDAY IN
VALLEY AREAS. WITH THE MIXING DURING PEAK HEATING, SOME
NORTHWEST GUSTS WILL REACH 20 TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILDER COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS THANKS TO THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE,
WITH VALLEY HIGHS INTO THE 60S.
INPUT FROM PARTNERS INDICATE FINE FUELS ARE RATHER DRY, DESPITE
RECENT RAINFALL. BASED ON THIS, THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED RISK
FOR FIRE SPREAD ON THURSDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY AND VALLEY AREAS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT, WHERE DRY
FUELS, GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH WILL ALL BE IN PLACE. A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS, ALTHOUGH
LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OTHER VALLEY
AREAS OF THE REGION AS WELL.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS GUSTY ON FRIDAY DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE. STILL, RH VALUES MAY BE UNDER 30 PERCENT ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN SO LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT ON FRIDAY. THESE TYPES OF LOCALIZED CONCERNS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE ON DAYS WHEN APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL GREENUP.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ASIDE FROM THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON THURSDAY, LITTLE
IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THIS WILL SPREAD SOME LIGHT RAIN TOWARDS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
AREAS, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH HOW FAR NORTH
AND EAST THE PRECIP WILL GET IN OUR AREA. ANY RAINFALL LOOKS
RATHER LIGHT, BUT SOME WET WEATHER COULD IMPACT OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES FOR SOUTHERN AREAS FOR SATURDAY. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP, DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN INTO THE 50S
FOR SATURDAY.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE AROUND
TUESDAY, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. AT THIS
POINT, NO FLOODING OR SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED. DAYTIME
TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KTS AT KGFL, KALB,
AND KPSF, BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE BY
00Z AT ALL SITES. LIGHT SHOWERS AT KPOU THIS EVENING MAY BRING CIGS
DOWN TO MVFR BRIEFLY, ALTHOUGH PREVAILING CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT TOWARDS VFR CONDITIONS. WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT,
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR PERIODS OF LOW-END MVR AND IFR CIGS
LATER INTO THE NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER THIS MANIFESTS AS LOW-LEVEL
STRATUS OR FOG, SO USING TEMPO GROUPS AT KGFL AND KPOU TO COVER THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED MIST/FOG. VIS AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING ON
THURSDAY, WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE TO AROUND 5-10 KTS OUT OF THE
NORTH AT KALB AND KGFL AND THE NORTHWEST AT KPOU AND KPSF BY THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...23
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