975
FXUS61 KALY 230015
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
815 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG FOR THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT DUE TO
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS TO THE LOWER END OF THE BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON HOURS WITHIN THE DEEPEST MIXING OF
THE DAY. IN ADDITION, ADJUSTED WIND GUSTS HIGHER FOR THURSDAY
BASED ON THE EXPECTED DEEPER MIXING AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WILL
LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY.
2) ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY RETURN TO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY, NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DESPITE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR TONIGHT, RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY ON THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. DEEP MIXING TO ABOUT 800 HPA WILL ALLOW
RH VALUES TO DROP AS LOW AS 25 TO 35 PERCENT ON THURSDAY IN
VALLEY AREAS. WITH THE MIXING DURING PEAK HEATING, SOME
NORTHWEST GUSTS WILL REACH 20 TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILDER COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS THANKS TO THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE,
WITH VALLEY HIGHS INTO THE 60S.
INPUT FROM PARTNERS INDICATE FINE FUELS ARE RATHER DRY, DESPITE
RECENT RAINFALL. BASED ON THIS, THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED RISK
FOR FIRE SPREAD ON THURSDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY AND VALLEY AREAS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT, WHERE DRY
FUELS, GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH WILL ALL BE IN PLACE. A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS, ALTHOUGH
LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OTHER VALLEY
AREAS OF THE REGION AS WELL.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS GUSTY ON FRIDAY DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE. STILL, RH VALUES MAY BE UNDER 30 PERCENT ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN SO LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT ON FRIDAY. THESE TYPES OF LOCALIZED CONCERNS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE ON DAYS WHEN APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL GREENUP.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ASIDE FROM THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON THURSDAY, LITTLE
IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THIS WILL SPREAD SOME LIGHT RAIN TOWARDS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
AREAS, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH HOW FAR NORTH
AND EAST THE PRECIP WILL GET IN OUR AREA. ANY RAINFALL LOOKS
RATHER LIGHT, BUT SOME WET WEATHER COULD IMPACT OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES FOR SOUTHERN AREAS FOR SATURDAY. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP, DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN INTO THE 50S
FOR SATURDAY.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE AROUND
TUESDAY, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. AT THIS
POINT, NO FLOODING OR SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED. DAYTIME
TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE TRACKING NEAR
GFL EARLY EVENING BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE TO INCLUDE IN THE LATEST TAF. THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BY 02 UTC. OTHERWISE, MVFR CIGS HAVE
IMPROVED TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT PSF WHERE MVFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THEN, SKIES CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS RADIATIONAL
COOLING LIKELY SUPPORTING AT LEAST PATCHY FOG AT ALL TERMINALS
BY 09 - 12 UTC. INCLUDING TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR VIS FROM FOG AT
ALB AND POU WITH PREVAILING IFR AT PSF AND GFL. FOG WILL BURN
OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY 12 -
14 UTC AND SKC CONDITIONS RETURNING THEREAFTER. NORTHWEST WINDS
TURN QUITE BREEZY BY 14-16 UTC TOMORROW MORNING WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS REACHING 5-12KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20KTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...31
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