931
FXUS61 KALY 230617
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
217 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CHANCES HAVE INCREASED FOR SATURDAY, AS LOW PRESSURE IS
NOW EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE AREA. THE BEST LIKELIHOOD OF
RAIN LOOKS TO BE FOR AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOME WET
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX IN AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR AT ELEVATIONS > 2500 FT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL LEAD
TO AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD, ESPECIALLY FOR THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT.
2) RAIN BECOMING MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW
IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. MORE
SHOWERS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD TODAY,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS
IN EFFECT. THIS IS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND GUSTY WINDS. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20-30%
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO
20-25 MPH AS DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS IN AN INCREASINGLY DRY
ENVIRONMENT. FUELS ARE MOST RECEPTIVE IN AREAS WHERE THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT VIA COORDINATION WITH STATE
OFFICIALS. LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
OTHER VALLEY AREAS AS WELL.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON FRIDAY, WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20-30% RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
10-15 MPH. SO THERE ARE LESSER CONCERNS FOR FIRE SPREAD FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MOST OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES HAVE SHIFTED THE
TRACK OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SATURDAY MOVING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FARTHER NORTH AND WEST COMPARED
TO PRIOR FORECASTS. THIS IS DUE TO A SHIFT IN THE OVERALL
BLOCKING PATTERN. REGIONAL GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM) HAS NOT SHIFTED
MUCH YET THOUGH, SO THERE IS NOT UNIVERSAL AGREEMENT. HOWEVER,
THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY (60-70%)
FOR AREAS SOUTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT, WITH CHANCE POPS
(30-50%) ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA ON SAT. THE
FORECAST HAS ALSO TRENDED COOLER AND CLOUDIER. HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED TO REACH THE 40S TO MID 50S. THE OTHER CHANGE IS WITH
STEADY PRECIP NOW ANTICIPATED, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COOLING OF
THE COLUMN FOR WET SNOW TO MIX IN AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS (> 2500 FT) OF THE E. CATSKILLS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DIURNALLY FAVORED COOLER TIMES. HAVE INTRODUCED MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH IN THESE ISOLATED AREAS.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN THE TUE TO TUE
NIGHT TIMEFRAME ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. AT THIS TIME THE SYSTEM LOOKS PROGRESSIVE, SO
HEAVY RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CLEARING CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN FEW
HIGH CLOUDS AND SKC FOR MOST TERMINALS HOWEVER LIGHT OVERNIGHT
WINDS, AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT PATCHY FOG AT ALL THE TERMINALS FROM THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD TO JUST AFTER SUNRISE (ABOUT 12Z). THIS
COULD RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR VIS AT KALB
AND KPOU. KGFL AND KPSF HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS LOWER TO IFR VIS AND WHICH WILL PREVAIL AT KGFL.
THESE ARE SHOWN WITH TEMPO GROUPS. FOG WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY 12-14Z. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK IN TOWARDS SUNSET TONIGHT. WINDS
TONIGHT ARE CALM WITH KALB LIGHT AND VARIABLE. BY DAYBREAK
WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BE AROUND 5 KT AND BECOME QUITE
BREEZY BY 16Z WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 8-13 KT AND GUSTS REACHING
25 KT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...53
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