826
FXUS61 KALY 231123
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
723 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CHANCES HAVE INCREASED FOR SATURDAY, AS LOW PRESSURE IS
NOW EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE AREA. THE BEST LIKELIHOOD OF
RAIN LOOKS TO BE FOR AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOME WET
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX IN AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR AT ELEVATIONS > 2500 FT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL LEAD
TO AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD, ESPECIALLY FOR THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT.
2) RAIN BECOMING MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW
IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. MORE
SHOWERS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD TODAY,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS
IN EFFECT. THIS IS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND GUSTY WINDS. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20-30%
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO
20-25 MPH AS DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS IN AN INCREASINGLY DRY
ENVIRONMENT. FUELS ARE MOST RECEPTIVE IN AREAS WHERE THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT VIA COORDINATION WITH STATE
OFFICIALS. LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
OTHER VALLEY AREAS AS WELL.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON FRIDAY, WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20-30% RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
10-15 MPH. SO THERE ARE LESSER CONCERNS FOR FIRE SPREAD FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MOST OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES HAVE SHIFTED THE
TRACK OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SATURDAY MOVING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FARTHER NORTH AND WEST COMPARED
TO PRIOR FORECASTS. THIS IS DUE TO A SHIFT IN THE OVERALL
BLOCKING PATTERN. REGIONAL GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM) HAS NOT SHIFTED
MUCH YET THOUGH, SO THERE IS NOT UNIVERSAL AGREEMENT. HOWEVER,
THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY (60-70%)
FOR AREAS SOUTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT, WITH CHANCE POPS
(30-50%) ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA ON SAT. THE
FORECAST HAS ALSO TRENDED COOLER AND CLOUDIER. HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED TO REACH THE 40S TO MID 50S. THE OTHER CHANGE IS WITH
STEADY PRECIP NOW ANTICIPATED, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COOLING OF
THE COLUMN FOR WET SNOW TO MIX IN AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS (> 2500 FT) OF THE E. CATSKILLS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DIURNALLY FAVORED COOLER TIMES. HAVE INTRODUCED MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH IN THESE ISOLATED AREAS.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN THE TUE TO TUE
NIGHT TIMEFRAME ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. AT THIS TIME THE SYSTEM LOOKS PROGRESSIVE, SO
HEAVY RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...LEFTOVER PATCHY FOG AT KGFL/KPOU/KPSF WILL
LIFT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, THEN VFR CONDITONS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. CALM
WINDS WILL BECOME 10-15 KT SUSTAINED FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AROUND NOON AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND TAPER OFF
WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...53
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