536
FXUS61 KALY 232313
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
713 PM EDT THU APR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MAIN CHANGES WERE TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WIND GUSTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON ONGOING TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS.
WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN IN THE 25-40 MPH RANGE AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY CONTINUE TO BE FOR AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL LEAD
TO AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD, ESPECIALLY FOR THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT.
2) SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN OCCURRING SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DEEP MIXING IS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH GUSTS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS WELL. PEAK GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE
HAVE OCCURRED SO FAR TODAY PER ASOS AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
NYS MESONET. THIS IS RESULTING IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
LOWERING INTO THE 20 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. PER EARLIER COORDINATION, A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR FIRE SPREAD REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
AND THE VALLEY AREAS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT BUT PRECAUTIONS SHOULD
BE IN PLACE FOR OTHER AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH RH VALUES LOWERING
INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER,
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER COMPARED TO TODAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 5
AND 15 MPH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A REDUCED THREAT FOR FIRE
SPREAD.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MUCH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL FEATURE NEAR SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND LOWS IN
THE 30S AND 40S. THERE WILL BE TWO MAIN OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE FIRST IS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THIS LOW WILL
SUPPLY LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH AND HELP SUPPRESS THE
TRACK OF THE LOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN
WHERE RAIN FALLS AND WHERE RAIN DOES NOT. STILL, THE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR SOME RAIN WILL BE FOR AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF
ALBANY WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS
TEMPERATURES COOL LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
PRECIPITATION MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS BEFORE ENDING WHERE UP TO A
COATING OF ACCUMULATION CAN OCCUR ON GRASSY SURFACES. OTHERWISE,
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TOO HEAVY WITH THIS SYSTEM
EITHER AS IT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH OCCASIONAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A FEW SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR AT KPOU AROUND
12Z/FRI, HOWEVER NO IMPACTS TO CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5-10 KT OVERNIGHT, THEN BECOME
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS FRIDAY MORNING, WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...24
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page