105
FXUS61 KALY 240608
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
208 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN OCCURRING SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK SE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SAT INTO SAT
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SHARP EDGE/CUT-OFF TO THE RAIN SHIELD
DUE TO A SUPPLY OF DRIER AIR ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE DRIER AIR WILL
BATTLE MOISTURE/FORCING FROM THE WAVE PASSING BY TO OUR
SOUTH/WEST. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN FOR
AREAS SOUTH/WEST OF ALBANY AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE E. CATSKILLS,
MID HUDSON VALLEY, S. TACONICS INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS. WHERE
IS DOES RAIN, QPF OF 0.20-0.70" EXPECTED, WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS ULSTER, S. DUTCHESS AND SW. LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.
STILL EXPECTING AT LEAST SOME WET SNOW TO MIX IN ACROSS THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE E. CATSKILLS, ESPECIALLY SAT EVENING.
A SLUSHY COATING TO 1" MAY ACCUMULATE ABOVE 2500 FT. DUE TO
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS/WOBBLES IN THE STORM TRACK,
WILL MENTION CHANCE (30-40%) POPS AROUND THE I-90 CORRIDOR, WITH
< 20% FARTHER NORTH/EAST. EVEN WHERE IT DOESN'T RAIN IT WILL BE
COOL/CLOUDY, WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FROM THE 40S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN A.M. WITH SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEARING ON SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER, BUT
STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUN AFTERNOON.
AFTER A FEW DRY/SEASONABLE DAYS, THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES TUE INTO WED, AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE SYSTEM WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES, DUE
TO THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH IN SE
CANADA. NBM SHOWING MAINLY CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD,
WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
MAGNITUDE OF FORCING/MOISTURE AVAILABLE.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A OCCASIONAL MID
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WILL SEE SKC BY MORNING. CLOUDS LINGER IN SOUTHWEST AREAS SO
KPOU WILL STILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY. KPOU COULD SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES AROUND 10Z JUST BEFORE SUNRISE HOWEVER MODEL GUIDANCE
ONLY SUGGESTS A 10-20% PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE THAT SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY REACH THE GROUND SO NO
IMPACTS TO CIGS/VIS ARE EXPECTED AND IT WAS NOT MENTIONED IN THE
TAF AT THIS TIME. CALM WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
5-10 KT FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH DAYBREAK WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...53
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