518
FXUS61 KALY 241725
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
125 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NEAR SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN OCCURRING SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK SE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SHARP EDGE/CUT-OFF TO THE RAIN
SHIELD DUE TO A SUPPLY OF DRIER AIR ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE DRIER AIR
WILL BATTLE MOISTURE/FORCING FROM THE WAVE PASSING BY TO OUR
SOUTH/WEST. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO
PARTS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE
0.40 TO 1.00 INCHES OF RAIN COULD OCCUR. THIS RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANY HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS. STILL EXPECTING
AT LEAST SOME WET SNOW TO MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
OF THE E. CATSKILLS, ESPECIALLY SAT EVENING, WITH A SLUSHY
COATING MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. WHERE IT DOESN'T RAIN IT WILL
STILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE
40S AND 50S WITH THE HIGHER READINGS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE
CLOUDS WILL BE THINNER AND MORE DISPLACED FROM THE RAIN TO THE
SOUTH. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY PART
OF SUNDAY BUT GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL REBOUND BACK CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS IN
THE 50S AND 60S.
AFTER A FEW DRY/SEASONABLE DAYS, RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE
BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACH THE REGION. THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY ON HOW THE PATTERN WILL
SHAPE UP FOR THIS PERIOD AND WHETHER OR NOT RAIN WILL BE ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE OR IF SOME PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SAT...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH 25/12Z.
BETWEEN 25/12Z AND 25/18Z, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AT KGFL, KALB, AND
KPSF ARRIVE WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT KPOU. LOW CHANCES (LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT) FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z FOR
KPOU, SO CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF MENTION OF ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MVFR CEILINGS FOR KPOU COULD
ARRIVE TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AFTER THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON RANGING
BETWEEN 5 AND 15 KNOTS, SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION BETWEEN 25/10Z AND 25/15Z. WINDS DECREASE OVERNIGHT,
RANGING BETWEEN 3 AND 6 KNOTS INTO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...RA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33/07
AVIATION...05
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