243
FXUS61 KALY 250559
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CATSKILLS BASED ON
EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY.
WITH DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS THE LOWER END OF THE BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR DEWPOINTS
WITHIN DAYTIME MIXING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. WITH AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT, HAVE ALSO INCREASED WINDS AND
GUSTS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH SOME RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS, BUT NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.
2) DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, BUT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN WILL ARRIVE TOWARDS MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING
MORE SEASONABLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR NORTHERN OHIO
WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TODAY TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC STATES. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STEADY
LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HIRES CAMS
SUGGESTS THIS PRECIP WILL BE SPREADING TO SOUTHEAST FOR TODAY.
THIS RAIN WILL BE ARRIVING IN THE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON
VALLEY FOR THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH IT'S NORTHERN EXTENT, AS ALL MODELS SHOW A
SHARP NORTHEASTERN GRADIENT WITH THE PRECIP, THANKS TO SOME
DRIER AIR ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE CAPITAL REGION WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE PRECIP
AND WHILE IT SHOULD BE DRY THIS MORNING, THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS THAT MAKE IT INTO THE ALBANY AREA FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. STILL, THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CATSKILLS FOR TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE CATSKILLS, THE RAIN MAY
MIX WITH OR BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW, BUT THIS WILL GENERALLY
BE AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS WITHIN THE WILDERNESS OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. AT THE TOP OF THESE PEAKS, SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT THIS WON'T HAVE ANY IMPACT
FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER DOWN IN ELEVATION. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT, BUT SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY
MORNING. TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR AN INCH FOR FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS BUT THE SHARP GRADIENT WILL LOWER THIS TO NEAR
ZERO NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF I-90.
OVERALL, IT WILL BE RATHER COOL TODAY DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIP. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S, WITH SOME UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS, ESPECIALLY THE
CATSKILLS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION FOR TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ALTHOUGH IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COOL ON SUNDAY AS THE
STORM DEPARTS, MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY. WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED, WILL ANTICIPATE MORE MIXING THAN
MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER END
OF THE BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND THE LOWER END FOR
DEWPOINTS FOR MONDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY,
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE MORE CLOUDS APPROACHING FOR LATER IN THE
DAY. IN ADDITION, WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT, WINDS MAY BE MORE
BREEZY ON TUESDAY AND HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED WINDS FROM THE
NBM FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR
VALLEY AREAS ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
30S, THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE BREEZY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH IT
MAY DEPEND ON JUST HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS WEEKEND.
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS
THIS OCCURS, TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND MORE CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR HIGHS (LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S). AT THIS
POINT, ANY PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS WITH A FEW HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME PERIODS OF SKC AT SOME. A BAND OF RAIN WILL
THEN BEGIN TO ADVANCE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER SATURDAY MORNING AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS INTO THE REGION.
ONCE THE RAIN DEVELOPS, CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR, FIRST
AT KPOU BY THE AFTERNOON (17Z), THEN AT KALB AND KPSF (AFTER 23Z).
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MODERATE RAIN WITH MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VIS
IS AT KPOU FROM ABOUT 22Z TO 02Z. MODEL GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWS ABOUT A
20-30% PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AT KALB AND KPSF AND IF SHOWERS REACH
THESE TERMINALS LIGHTER RAINFALL SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY IN
VFR BUT WILL NOT RULE OUT MVFR CIGS REACHING THESE TERMINALS. THIS
CHANCE IS SHOWN IN A PROB30. KGFL SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND VFR THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO ABOUT 5 KT OR
LESS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS THEN SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTHEAST JUST AFTER SUNRISE WITH SPEEDS 4-8 KT AND A FEW
ISOLATED GUSTS 12-14KT AT KALB THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...53
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