090
FXUS61 KALY 251024
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
624 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CATSKILLS BASED ON
EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY.
WITH DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS THE LOWER END OF THE BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR DEWPOINTS
WITHIN DAYTIME MIXING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. WITH AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT, HAVE ALSO INCREASED WINDS AND
GUSTS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH SOME RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS, BUT NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.
2) DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, BUT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN WILL ARRIVE TOWARDS MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING
MORE SEASONABLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR NORTHERN OHIO
WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TODAY TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC STATES. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STEADY
LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HIRES CAMS
SUGGESTS THIS PRECIP WILL BE SPREADING TO SOUTHEAST FOR TODAY.
THIS RAIN WILL BE ARRIVING IN THE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON
VALLEY FOR THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH IT'S NORTHERN EXTENT, AS ALL MODELS SHOW A
SHARP NORTHEASTERN GRADIENT WITH THE PRECIP, THANKS TO SOME
DRIER AIR ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE CAPITAL REGION WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE PRECIP
AND WHILE IT SHOULD BE DRY THIS MORNING, THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS THAT MAKE IT INTO THE ALBANY AREA FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. STILL, THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CATSKILLS FOR TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE CATSKILLS, THE RAIN MAY
MIX WITH OR BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW, BUT THIS WILL GENERALLY
BE AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS WITHIN THE WILDERNESS OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. AT THE TOP OF THESE PEAKS, SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT THIS WON'T HAVE ANY IMPACT
FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER DOWN IN ELEVATION. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT, BUT SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY
MORNING. TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR AN INCH FOR FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS BUT THE SHARP GRADIENT WILL LOWER THIS TO NEAR
ZERO NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF I-90.
OVERALL, IT WILL BE RATHER COOL TODAY DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIP. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S, WITH SOME UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS, ESPECIALLY THE
CATSKILLS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION FOR TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ALTHOUGH IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COOL ON SUNDAY AS THE
STORM DEPARTS, MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY. WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED, WILL ANTICIPATE MORE MIXING THAN
MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER END
OF THE BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND THE LOWER END FOR
DEWPOINTS FOR MONDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY,
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE MORE CLOUDS APPROACHING FOR LATER IN THE
DAY. IN ADDITION, WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT, WINDS MAY BE MORE
BREEZY ON TUESDAY AND HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED WINDS FROM THE
NBM FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR
VALLEY AREAS ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
30S, THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE BREEZY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH IT
MAY DEPEND ON JUST HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS WEEKEND.
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS
THIS OCCURS, TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND MORE CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR HIGHS (LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S). AT THIS
POINT, ANY PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR ALL SITES WITH JUST
SCT-BKN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY
DOES SHOW SOME POCKETS OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY, SO
THERE COULD START TO BE SOME LOWER CEILINGS AROUND 2500-4000 FT
FAIRLY SOON AT KALB/KPOU, OTHERWISE, IT WILL REMAIN VFR WITH
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS. IF THESE LOWER CLOUDS DO MOVE IN, THEY
WILL PROBABLY BE JUST FAIRLY BRIEF FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS ARE IN PLACE AT THIS TIME, BUT THEY WILL START TO
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 KTS BY THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS.
AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES, CEILINGS WILL BECOME BKN AROUND
4000-5000 FT FOR ALL SITES BY LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. BASED ON THE LATEST CAMS, A BATCH OF RAIN
WILL BE APPROACHING, BUT IT LOOKS TO AVOID MOST OF THE NORTHERN
SITES (KGFL, KALB, KPSF) INITIALLY, BUT SHOULD BRING SOME RAIN
TO KPOU LATER TODAY, MAINLY AFTER 16Z. FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
LOWER THIS AFTERNOON TO MVFR AND SOME IFR IS POSSIBLE THERE THIS
EVENING AS WELL.
EVENTUALLY, SOME LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 2-3 KFT ARE EXPECTED AT
KALB/KPSF FOR THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL
ALSO INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR TONIGHT IN CASE SOME RAIN DOES MOVE
IN, BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE IF IT MAKES IT OR NOT. EITHER WAY, IT
DOES APPEAR THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN. MEANWHILE,
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AT KPOU, KEEPING
MVFR IN PLACE AND POSSIBLY IFR AS WELL. KGFL WILL BE FAR ENOUGH
NORTH FOR CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. ALL SITES WILL SEE LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...27
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