483
FXUS61 KALY 260625
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
225 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE WINDING DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS TO SHOW PRECIP
ENDING TOWARDS DAYBREAK ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD, ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS DOWN
SLIGHTLY FOR TONIGHT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR MONDAY, BASED ON
EXPECTED FULL SUNSHINE. WITH DRIER AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE
REGION, LEANED TOWARDS THE LOWERED END OF THE BLENDED GUIDANCE
FOR DEWPOINTS ON MONDAY. ADJUSTED WINDS SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR
TUESDAY AND DEWPOINTS LOWER DURING PEAK MIXING ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BEHIND A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM, DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN
RETURNING TO THE REGION TODAY, WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS
BY EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. DEPENDING ON FUELS, ENHANCED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD BE A LOCALIZED CONCERN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK,
BUT IMPACTS LOOK MINOR AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
STEADY LIGHT RAINFALL, CURRENTLY ONGOING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND I-90, WILL BE EXITING THE REGION FROM WEST TO
THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DONE WITH
PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK, ALTHOUGH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
MAY LINGER INTO PART OF THE MORNING HOURS. A LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUALLY MORE DRIER AIR TO WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION FOR LATER TODAY, ALTHOUGH NOTICEABLY MORE DRIER
AIR WON'T ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD FOR MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR PLENTY
OF SUBSIDENCE. WITH FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED, IT WILL BE MUCH
DRIER, WITH RH VALUES AS LOW AS 25 TO 30 PERCENT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MIXING WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE, SO WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. STILL, WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE EXPECTED, HAVE GONE WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE NBM
FOR MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR
70.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY MORNING, BUT
IT WILL BE SHIFTING EASTWARD BY LATER IN THE DAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM STARTS TO APPROACH. WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPING, SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ON TUESDAY, WITH
SOME GUSTS REACHING 20-25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND, RH VALUES WILL STILL
BE AS LOW AS 30 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL STILL BE RATHER MILD, WITH VALUES WELL INTO THE 60S
ONCE AGAIN.
WITH THE RETURN OF DRIER AIR, FINE FUELS WILL LIKELY BE DRYING
OUT RATHER QUICKLY EARLY NEXT WEEK DURING DAYTIME MIXING WITH
THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. ALTHOUGH THESE RH VALUES ARE FAIRLY
SEASONABLE CONSIDERING IT IS STILL TECHNICALLY PRE-GREENUP, WE
WILL NEED TO COORDINATE WITH STATE FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS TO GET
AN UPDATE ON FUEL STATUS. FINE FUELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO DRY OUT
VERY QUICKLY, SO DESPITE RECENT RAINFALL (UP TO AN INCH ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS WEEKEND), FUELS COULD POTENTIALLY BE READY
TO GO. WHILE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT ON MONDAY, THEY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT BREEZY ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE INCREASING GRADIENT. FIRE
WEATHER PARTNERS MAY BE OPEN TO SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS EARLY
NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH CURRENT WIND GUST FORECASTS WOULD SUGGEST
THAT WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS PROBABLY WON'T BE REACHED.
BASED ON THE LATEST LOCAL FIRE WEATHER OPERATING PLAN, THE
COMBINATION OF EASILY DRIED OUT FINE FUELS AND SEASONABLY LOW RH
VALUES WITHIN DAYTIME MIXING ON SUNNY DAYS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE
FIRE WEATHER COORDINATION FOR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AND/OR
RED FLAG WARNINGS UNTIL GREENUP OCCURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO BE
TEMPORARILY ALLEVIATED DUE TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS
WILL A STORM SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES, A BAND OF SHOWERS LOOKS LIKELY FOR
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT, SHOWERS LOOK
LIGHT ENOUGH TO AVOID ANY FLOODING CONCERNS.
BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY, IT APPEARS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE REMAINING OVERHEAD AS A CUTOFF LOW REMAINS OVER
OR NEAR THE REGION, KEEPING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AROUND. WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE, TEMPS LOOK TO BE BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH DAYTIME TEMPS ONLY IN THE 40S
AND 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S. WHILE THE TROUGH MAY
LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THE COOLER WEATHER COULD BRING
ANOTHER SPRING CONCERN IF ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS: FROST. THE
FROST-FREEZE PROGRAM BEGINS MAY 1ST FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY,
SOUTHERN TACONICS AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS POTENTIALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THESE AREAS LATE IN
THE WEEK, WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL TO ISSUE THE
FIRST FROST ADVISORY OF THE SEASON FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...KENX RADAR SHOWS THE LAST PUSH OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL MOVING THROUGH AREAS TONIGHT JUST REACHING KALB
AND KPSF BEFORE EXITING TO THE SOUTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE KALB,
KPSF, AND KPOU WILL SEE MVFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS THROUGH 8-
10Z. KGFL WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH VFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL EARLY MORNING. AFTER THE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH,
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE, HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE
LEFTOVER IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH VERY CLOSE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS
PLUS CALM WINDS COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS COULD LOWER CONDITIONS
TO IFR CIGS ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WITH SUNRISE,
ANY LINGERING FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY ABOUT 13-
15Z AND PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
UNDER 5 KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING
BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BY NOON WITH SPEEDS BECOMING
4-8 KT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...53
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