364
FXUS61 KALY 262303
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
703 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, ADJUSTED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR TONIGHT AND INCLUDED PATCHY FOG DUE TO
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING. ALSO, BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY, GIVEN EXPECTED FULL SUNSHINE. WITH DRIER
AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION, WE AGAIN LEANED TOWARDS THE
LOWERED END OF THE BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR DEWPOINTS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO BETTER REPRESENT THE LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES. ADJUSTED WINDS SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AGAIN GIVEN DEEP MIXING AND TIGHTER SFC GRADIENT WHICH
LOOKS TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE SPREAD.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH BREEZIER WINDS
ON TUESDAY POTENTIALLY ENHANCING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, DEPENDING ON
THE STATE OF THE FUELS.
2) INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BUT FLOODING IMPACTS LOOK UNLIKELY. THEN, TEMPERATURES
TREND COOLER THAN NORMAL LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND NORTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING IN A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS TODAY WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO 25 TO
35% ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGHEST
RH VALUES ARE IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WHERE CLOUDS ARE
TAKING LONGER TO DEPART AND WHERE A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN FELL
YESTERDAY. THEN, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BEFORE SETTLING OVERHEAD BY TUESDAY
RESULTING IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. CLEAR SKIES AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S
BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN VALLEY
AREAS. ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF TOMORROW MORNING AS ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE QUICKLY ALLOWS DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO ENSUE LEADING
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S AND LOW
70S. THE DEEP MIXING AND NORTHWEST DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL EASILY
ALLOW DEW POINTS TO DROP DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS SO WE LEANED
TOWARDS THE NBM10TH PERCENTILE. WHILE THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING IN THE 30 TO 40% RANGE, LIGHT
WINDS (UNDER 10MPH) SHOULD MINIMIZE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
ANOTHER COOL AND CLEAR NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORNING SUN ON
TUESDAY MIXING WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS AS OUR NEXT MOISTURE
STARVED SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL AGAIN
OCCUR DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
TURNING BREEZY (GUSTS UP TO 20-25MPH). WE AGAIN LEANED TOWARDS THE
NBM10TH PERCENTILE FOR DEW POINTS BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO
SHOWCASE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AGAIN DROPPING 25 TO 35% AS
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN WARM INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW RH VALUES AND BREEZIER WINDS ON TUESDAY MAY
RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD, DEPENDING ON THE STATE
OF THE FUELS. WE WILL CONSULT OUR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS TO LEARN IF
FUELS ARE AVAILABLE AND IF SO, COORDINATE ANY SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS TO MESSAGE THE RISK FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A MOISTURE STARVED BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WEAK OVERALL FORCING AND MOISTURE HAS
CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE AND LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS, NORTHERN/EASTERN CATSKILLS AND THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY. ANY SHOWERS THAT FALL LOOK VERY LIGHT AS THERE IS
UNDER A 10% FOR OVER A 0.10" OF RAIN PER LATEST NBM PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS RAIN WILL LIKELY NOT SATURATE ANY AVAILABLE
FUELS, HIGHER DEW POINTS AND WEAKER WINDS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD REDUCE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THEN, A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AMPLIFIES
ON WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS ITS BASE AND STRENGTHENS AS IT
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WED P.M INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH
STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT COMBINED WITH A
MOISTURE FETCH OUT OF THE GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LOOK TO SUPPORT
SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS AND A RESULTING COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN THAT
SWEEPS ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. IN FACT, THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS A 50 TO
65% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A 0.50" OF RAIN FALLING BETWEEN 7PM WED AND
7PM THURS REGIONWIDE; HOWEVER, GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS,
FLOODING IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY. SHOULD THE COASTAL LOW DEEPEN AS
IT TRACKS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
TREND UPWARDS AS RAIN SLOWS DOWN AND LINGERS LONGER INTO THURSDAY.
SHOULD THE COASTAL LOW REMAIN WEAK, RAIN AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE
LOWER AND THE SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY SHOULD TREND DRIER.
AFTER THIS COASTAL LOW DEPARTS LATE IN THE WEEK, MUCH COOLER AIR
TRACKS INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH A TREND TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LIKELY FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY. WITH THE GROWING
SEASON BEGINNING MAY 1 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN TACONICS AND
NW CT, WE WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE
CONCERNS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/TUESDAY, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) OF SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AT KPOU BETWEEN 10Z-13Z/MON, WHICH
IF IT OCCURS, COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS VERY LOW AND WILL NOT BE INCLUDED EXPLICITLY IN
CURRENT TAFS. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TREND INTO THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 4-8 KT BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...24
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