557
FXUS61 KALY 281103
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
703 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
HAVE INCREASED FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION HAS INCREASED TO LOW CHANCES FOR
LOCATIONS WEST AND SOUTH OF ALBANY THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND
DRY FUELS WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD TODAY
FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
2) HIGH CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, WITH VERY LOW RISK OF FLOODING IMPACTS. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...BASED ON LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCES, WIND GUSTS FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
INCREASED TO RANGE BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH FOR LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN LOWERED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON, RANGING BETWEEN 30 AND 40 DEGREES. WITH THE
COMBINATION OF LOW DEWPOINTS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CAN RANGE BETWEEN 25
AND 35 PERCENT FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
CONTINUES TODAY FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER, HAMILTON, FULTON,
SARATOGA, WARREN, WASHINGTON, SCHENECTADY, ALBANY, RENSSELAER,
WESTERN GREENE, WESTERN ULSTER FOR AN ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE
SPREAD. A TRICKY CHALLENGE TO THE FORECAST TODAY IS WHEN DO THE
CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE WEST AND NORTH AND HOW WARM TEMPERATURES
DO REACH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
ARRIVAL TIMING OF CLOUDS AND THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY,
THERE IS STILL A RISK FOR ELEVATED CONCERNS FOR FIRE SPREAD DUE
TO THE GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, AND DRY FUELS.
ANOTHER FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY THAT LEAD TO INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS LOCATIONS WEST OF ALBANY IS
IF PRECIPITATION REACHES THE GROUND LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCES SUPPORTS
LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION (IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS) TO ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR
LOCATIONS WEST OF ALBANY. WHILE ANY AMOUNT WILL BE LIGHT,
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE COULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING
REACHED THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS, WITH DRY FUELS AND THE
COMBINATION OF FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE, ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE
SPREAD COULD EXIST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE LATEST NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS DATA
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HIGH CHANCES (>75%) FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. BASED ON ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODEL
GUIDANCES AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCES, WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE BETWEEN 0.5 INCHES AND 0.75 INCHES.
LATEST PROBABILITIES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER
THAN 0.25 INCHES IS GREATER THAN 90%. FOR GREATER THAN 0.5
INCHES, PROBABILITIES ARE GREATER THAN 60%. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A GOOD SOAKING RAINFALL TO OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH VERY LOW RISKS OF ANY
FLOODING THAT COULD OCCUR. PARTICULARLY DUE TO THE LACK OF
PRECIPITATION FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY IN
THE LAST THREE DAYS AND THE RATE OF RAIN WHICH WILL BE STEADY (A
NORMAL SPRING RAIN SHOWER).
DRIER CONDITIONS GRADUALLY RETURN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BASED ON LATEST ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES, AN UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IS FAVORED TO KEEP LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR DAILY
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF EITHER LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS DUE TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES STICKING AROUND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE
COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE 40S AND 50S, WITH
ISOLATED HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN THE
UPPER 30S. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AS WE GET CLOSER
TO THE WEEKEND AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE CHANGES FOR POTENTIAL GROWING
SEASON IMPACTS AND/OR OUTDOOR RECREATION IMPACTS.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS, STARTING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS THIS. BY 14Z-15Z, SOUTHERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS AS A BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION,
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 8-12 KTS. GUSTS AT KALB AND KGFL WILL
BE STRONGEST, UP TO 20-25 KTS, WHILE KPOU AND KPSF WILL SEE
GUSTS AROUND 10-15 KTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO LOWER TO MID-LEVEL BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
WELL TO THE WEST OF ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER, THESE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE TERMINALS, KEEPING
CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY THROUGH 06Z ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS SHOULD
ALSO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET ON TUESDAY, LEAVING LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MID- LEVEL CIGS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES AROUND 06Z ON WEDNESDAY, PRIMARILY AT
KGFL, WHICH COULD DROP CIGS TO MVFR BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME, THUS GOING WITH A PROB30 FOR THIS PERIOD AT THAT
TERMINAL. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BUT VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...23
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