008
FXUS61 KALY 281856
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
256 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED TEMPERATURES TODAY TO SHOW MORE OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
REACHING INTO THE LOW 70S BASED ON CURRENT TREND. ALSO, LOWERED
DEW POINTS AND INCREASED WIND GUSTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD. FINALLY, LOWERED POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY TO SHOW THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY BEFORE POPS
INCREASE LATE PM INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND
DRY FUELS WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD TODAY
FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
2) MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THROUGHOUT EASTERN NY AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND BUT FLOODING IMPACTS ARE UNLIKELY.
3) HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR FROST ADVISORIES AND/OR
FREEZE WARNINGS IN AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE HUDSON VALLEY,
SOUTHERN TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY, CT WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON BEGINS MAY 1.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT CONTINUES FOR TODAY
FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER, HAMILTON, FULTON, SARATOGA, WARREN,
WASHINGTON, SCHENECTADY, ALBANY, RENSSELAER, WESTERN GREENE, AND
WESTERN ULSTER WHERE THERE REMAINS AN ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE
SPREAD DUE TO GUSTY WINDS 20 TO 25MPH, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES 25 TO 35 PERCENT, AND DRY FINE FUELS. LATEST NYS MESONET
SHOWS CRITICAL RH VALUES BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE ADIRONDACK AND UPPER HUDSON FDRA BUT WIND
GUSTS HAVE REMAINED MAINLY IN THE 20 TO 25MPH RANGE WITH ONLY
A FEW INSTANCES OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 25MPH. THIS LEADS US TO
BELIEVE A SPS WAS THE RIGHT CALL AS THE WINDS WILL LIKELY FALL
SHORT OF THE CRITICAL FIRE SPREAD CRITERIA, ESPECIALLY AS CLOUDS
INCREASE AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DEPTH WEAKENS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING BUT MOISTURE QUICKLY DIMINISHES. WHILE WE HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE AND LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES THAT MAY SPILL INTO OUR WESTERN ADIRONDACK AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AREAS, ANY RAINFALL WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE
AND LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO MOISTEN ANY FINE FUELS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ONE FINAL DAY OF SPRING WARMTH AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY SLIDES INTO NEW
ENGLAND; HOWEVER, ENJOY THE SPRING WEATHER WHILE IT'S HERE AS A
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING
ITS BASE LOOKS TO RESULT IN A SECONDARY SFC LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT WITH IT TRACKING INTO EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A DECENTLY STRONG LOW AND MID-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY JET ELICITS A MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE GULF AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AS AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE
COASTAL LOW INTO EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, WE CONTINUE
TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
OVERALL FORCING AND MOISTURE HAS TRENDED A BIT WEAKER OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. WHILE THERE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AT
LEAST 0.50" OF RAIN REGIONWIDE BETWEEN 2PM WED AND 2PM THURS,
THE PROBABILITY OF AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1.00" DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY
TO UNDER 30% EXCEPT THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS WHERE PROBS ARE A BIT HIGHER.
THE STEADIEST RAIN WINDS DOWN THURSDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NORTH/EAST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT, AS OUR COASTAL LOW DEEPENS, SLOWS DOWN THE
INVERTED TROUGH AND SUPPORTS WRAP AROUND SHOWERS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE LARGE SCALE
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PERSISTS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO RESULTING
IN DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY (EVEN
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS).
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY AND, TO A LESSER EXTEND, SATURDAY
WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER. THE GROWING SEASON STARTS MAY 1
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN TACONICS, AND NW CT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH GREATER THAN A
75% CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL BELOW 35 DEGREES IN THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND A 50 TO 75% CHANCE IN THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT, SOUTHERN TACONICS, AND NW CT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. WITH DIURNAL CLOUDS AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEARING OVERNIGHT,
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZE WARNINGS
AND/OR FROST ADVISORIES AND IMPACTS TO SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
VEGETATION IN THESE AREAS. OUR COLD STRETCH LINGERS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS AS OF 1:15
PM EDT SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH BKN MID-
LEVEL CIGS 4000-6000 FT EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. HAVE REMOVED PREVAILING SHOWERS AT GFL LATE
TONIGHT AND CHANGED TO A VCSH AS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LOOKS ISOLATED
AT BEST. EVEN IF ANY SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE AIRFIELD, NOT EXPECTING
ANY REDUCTIONS TO VSBY/CIGS BELOW VFR. S/SE WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT
WITH GUSTS 15-25 KT (STRONGEST AT ALB/GFL) EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. S/SE WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KT WITH NO GUSTS TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, THEN INCREASE BACK TO 5-10 KT FROM
THE S/SE MID-MORNING TOMORROW THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...35
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