606
FXUS61 KALY 290603
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
203 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SPS FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK HAS EXPIRED FOR PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
TO 70-90% WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 MPH) TO CALM
ACROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THROUGHOUT EASTERN NY AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND BUT FLOODING IMPACTS ARE UNLIKELY.
2) HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR FROST ADVISORIES
AND/OR FREEZE WARNINGS IN AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY, SOUTHERN TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY, CT WHERE THE
GROWING SEASON BEGINS MAY 1.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ONE FINAL DAY OF SPRING WARMTH AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY SLIDES INTO NEW
ENGLAND; HOWEVER, ENJOY THE SPRING WEATHER WHILE IT'S HERE AS A
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING
ITS BASE LOOKS TO RESULT IN A SECONDARY SFC LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT WITH IT TRACKING INTO EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A DECENTLY STRONG LOW AND MID-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY JET ELICITS A MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE GULF AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AS AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE
COASTAL LOW INTO EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, WE CONTINUE
TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
OVERALL FORCING AND MOISTURE HAS TRENDED A BIT WEAKER OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. WHILE THERE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AT
LEAST 0.50" OF RAIN REGIONWIDE BETWEEN 2PM WED AND 2PM THURS,
THE PROBABILITY OF AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1.00" DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY
TO UNDER 30% EXCEPT THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS WHERE PROBS ARE A BIT HIGHER.
THE STEADIEST RAIN WINDS DOWN THURSDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NORTH/EAST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT, AS OUR COASTAL LOW DEEPENS, SLOWS DOWN THE
INVERTED TROUGH AND SUPPORTS WRAP AROUND SHOWERS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE LARGE SCALE
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PERSISTS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO RESULTING
IN DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY (EVEN
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS).
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY AND, TO A LESSER EXTEND, SATURDAY
WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER. THE GROWING SEASON STARTS MAY 1
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN TACONICS, AND NW CT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH GREATER THAN A
75% CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL BELOW 35 DEGREES IN THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND A 50 TO 75% CHANCE IN THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT, SOUTHERN TACONICS, AND NW CT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. WITH DIURNAL CLOUDS AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEARING OVERNIGHT,
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZE WARNINGS
AND/OR FROST ADVISORIES AND IMPACTS TO SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
VEGETATION IN THESE AREAS. OUR COLD STRETCH LINGERS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT ALL
TERMINALS, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL SCT-BKN CIGS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING, THOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE MVFR DURING
THIS PERIOD OF TIME. WINDS WILL INITIALLY REMAIN STEADY AT KALB
AND KGFL, BUT WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH AT KPOU AND KPSF THROUGH THE
MID-MORNING. BY LATE MORNING, SOUTHERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION, WITH GUSTS REACHING UP TO
AROUND 20 KTS AT KGFL AND KALB. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING, WHICH
WILL DRIVE A STEADY LOWERING OF CIGS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND MIDNIGHT,
LIKELY BRINGING A TRANSITION TO MVFR IN THE LAST FEW HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT TO SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...23
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