967
FXUS61 KALY 291758
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
158 PM EDT WED APR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED WINDS/WIND GUSTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND AGAIN
FRI/SAT AFTERNOON. ALSO INCREASED CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
2) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FROST ADVISORIES AND/OR FREEZE WARNINGS MAY
BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN
TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD HILLS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS
MAY 1.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. PWAT'S ARE
GENERALLY 0.90"-1.25" AMID MODERATE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, SO
EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL, WITH A FEW POCKETS
OF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATER TONIGHT. LATEST NBM 24-HOUR PROBS FOR >0.50" OF RAIN
ENDING 8 PM THURSDAY ARE GENERALLY 60-80% WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER, AND 40-60% TO THE EAST, WHILE SIMILAR PROBS FOR >1" ARE
10-30% WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER (GREATEST ACROSS THE SW
ADIRONDACKS/NORTHERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS), AND
<10% TO THE EAST.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN AND EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO 25-35 MPH.
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER SOME LINGERING
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SW
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY DUE TO INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SOME
LAKE EFFECT ENHANCEMENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVERAGE AND WINDS, THERE COULD BE AREAS WHERE TEMPS DROP
INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S OR EVEN COLDER, ESPECIALLY SAT AND SUN
MORNINGS. THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS MAY 1 WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY, SOUTHERN TACONICS AND NW CT, AND AREAS WHICH SEEM
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING IN THESE AREAS WOULD BE THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
INCLUDING THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION, AND POSSIBLY THE
SOUTHERN TACONICS, WITH FROST (TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 30S)
EXPECTED WITHIN MANY OTHER PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
AND NW CT ON THESE MORNINGS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS. TEMPS
SHOULD TREND CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 00 UTC. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON YET REMAIN VFR WITH
WINDS STRENGTHENING BY 20 - 22 UTC AT ALL TERMINALS GUSTING UP
TO 20-25KTS. THEN, A WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF RAIN ARRIVES FROM
WEST TO EAST BY 00 - 03 UTC RESULTING IN MVFR VIS YET VFR CIGS.
AS RAIN TURNS STEADY BY 05 - 07 UTC, CIGS LIKELY LOWER BECOMING
MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS WITH MVFR VIS CONTINUING. MVFR VIS/CIGS
CONTINUE THROUGH 10 - 12 UTC BEFORE THE STEADY RAIN LIFTS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS RESULTING IN IMPROVING VIS BACK TO VFR
BUT LINGERING MVFR THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
ALSO SHIFT SHARPLY TO THE WEST BY 14 - 16 UTC BECOMING SUSTAINED
5-10KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20KTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24/07
AVIATION...31
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