379
FXUS61 KALY 292353
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
753 PM EDT WED APR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED WINDS/WIND GUSTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND AGAIN
FRI/SAT AFTERNOON. ALSO INCREASED CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
2) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FROST ADVISORIES AND/OR FREEZE WARNINGS MAY
BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN
TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD HILLS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS
MAY 1.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. PWAT'S ARE
GENERALLY 0.90"-1.25" AMID MODERATE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, SO
EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL, WITH A FEW POCKETS
OF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATER TONIGHT. LATEST NBM 24-HOUR PROBS FOR >0.50" OF RAIN
ENDING 8 PM THURSDAY ARE GENERALLY 60-80% WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER, AND 40-60% TO THE EAST, WHILE SIMILAR PROBS FOR >1" ARE
10-30% WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER (GREATEST ACROSS THE SW
ADIRONDACKS/NORTHERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS), AND
<10% TO THE EAST.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN AND EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO 25-35 MPH.
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER SOME LINGERING
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SW
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY DUE TO INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SOME
LAKE EFFECT ENHANCEMENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVERAGE AND WINDS, THERE COULD BE AREAS WHERE TEMPS DROP
INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S OR EVEN COLDER, ESPECIALLY SAT AND SUN
MORNINGS. THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS MAY 1 WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY, SOUTHERN TACONICS AND NW CT, AND AREAS WHICH SEEM
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING IN THESE AREAS WOULD BE THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
INCLUDING THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION, AND POSSIBLY THE
SOUTHERN TACONICS, WITH FROST (TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 30S)
EXPECTED WITHIN MANY OTHER PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
AND NW CT ON THESE MORNINGS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS. TEMPS
SHOULD TREND CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH, AS CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER BETWEEN 00Z-04Z/THU WITH
RAIN OVERSPREADING THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. CIGS/VSBYS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS AT ALL THE TAF
SITES BETWEEN 03Z-06Z/THU IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD. WE
COULD SEE SOME IFR/LOW MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS DEVELOP BETWEEN
06Z-12Z/THU AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE CIGS IN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS. THE IFR/LOW
MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z/THU WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL/KALB PRIOR TO 14Z/THU. IFR CIGS WITH
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY PERSISTS UNTIL 16Z-18Z/THU AT
KPOU/KPSF WITH KPSF LINGERING THE LONGEST. AS THE WAVE DEPARTS
FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO MVFR CIGS/LOW VFR IN
THE MID TO LATE PM WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5-12 KT WITH SOME GUSTS
15-20 KT AT KALB/KPSF EARLY TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST 5-10 KT OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 8-12 KT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT AT KALB/KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24/07
AVIATION...15
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