726
FXUS61 KALY 300549
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
149 AM EDT THU APR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED WINDS/WIND GUSTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND AGAIN
FRI/SAT AFTERNOON. ALSO INCREASED CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
2) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FROST ADVISORIES AND/OR FREEZE WARNINGS MAY
BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN
TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD HILLS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS
MAY 1.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. PWAT'S ARE
GENERALLY 0.90"-1.25" AMID MODERATE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, SO
EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL, WITH A FEW POCKETS
OF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATER TONIGHT. LATEST NBM 24-HOUR PROBS FOR >0.50" OF RAIN
ENDING 8 PM THURSDAY ARE GENERALLY 60-80% WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER, AND 40-60% TO THE EAST, WHILE SIMILAR PROBS FOR >1" ARE
10-30% WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER (GREATEST ACROSS THE SW
ADIRONDACKS/NORTHERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS), AND
<10% TO THE EAST.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN AND EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO 25-35 MPH.
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER SOME LINGERING
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SW
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY DUE TO INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SOME
LAKE EFFECT ENHANCEMENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVERAGE AND WINDS, THERE COULD BE AREAS WHERE TEMPS DROP
INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S OR EVEN COLDER, ESPECIALLY SAT AND SUN
MORNINGS. THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS MAY 1 WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY, SOUTHERN TACONICS AND NW CT, AND AREAS WHICH SEEM
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING IN THESE AREAS WOULD BE THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
INCLUDING THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION, AND POSSIBLY THE
SOUTHERN TACONICS, WITH FROST (TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 30S)
EXPECTED WITHIN MANY OTHER PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
AND NW CT ON THESE MORNINGS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS. TEMPS
SHOULD TREND CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A VARIETY OF FLYING CONDITIONS START THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS AND/OR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING, WITH
IFR CONDITIONS BEING THE PRIMARY FLYING CONDITION THROUGH 30/14Z TO
30/18Z. WHILE VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TO
GREATER THAN 6 MILES, LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE FORECASTED TO
CONTINUE. THEN CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z TO A MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING AFTER 01/00Z FOR ALL TAF SITES.
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR KPOU AND KPSF THROUGH
THIS MORNING. FOR KGFL, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. FOR KALB, BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH 12-14Z RANGING BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 23 AND 28 KNOTS. WINDS CHANGE DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AFTER
17Z TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST RANGING BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS. FOR KPSF
AND KALB THIS AFTERNOON, WIND GUSTS COULD RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 20
KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24/07
AVIATION...05
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