194
FXUS61 KALY 301839
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
239 PM EDT THU APR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS AND QPF FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LOWER THE
THREAT FOR FROST FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS A
COASTAL LOW TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. ALSO INCREASED WIND
GUSTS AND LOWERED DEW POINTS/RH SUNDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING COASTAL
LOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
TIMES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN TACONICS
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS MAY 1.
3) UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS OF 2:40 PM EDT...1004 MB SFC LOW IS TRACKING OFF TO OUR
NORTH. SHOWERS THAT WERE AROUND EARLIER THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS CYCLONE ARE DEPARTING INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND, WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR
REGION AT THIS TIME. THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT IS NOW LOCATED OFF
TO OUR EAST IN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL, WITH WINDS HAVING SWITCHED
TO THE W/NW FOR MOST AREAS. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S (TERRAIN) TO UPPER 50S (VALLEYS. BREAKS OF CLEARING
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR VALLEY
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 30S, BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST IN
AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON OFFICIALLY BEGINS MAY 1 (HUDSON
VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
OUR WEATHER TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW (ULL) CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE UPPER
FLOW BLOCKED BY RIDGING NEAR GREENLAND. WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
POOL ALOFT NEARBY, MORNING CLEARING WILL LEAD TO MORE AFTERNOON
CLOUDS AS WE EASILY HIT THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL, MAINLY
FOR WESTERN AREAS. TOMORROW NIGHT, A WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE ULL.
WITH AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED SFC TROUGH, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. WE
BUMPED UP POPS TO HIGH-END CHANCE AND ADDED A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF FOR MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO VERY EARLY SATURDAY. GIVEN MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS,
FROST NOW DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY, WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH MORE PM CLOUDS AND A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AS WE CONTINUE TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF
THE ULL. A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL BE PHASING WITH THE
ULL SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO A DEVELOPING SFC LOW
TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION. 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW A TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK, SO WHILE MOST
AREAS SHOULD MISS OUT ON THE RAIN, SOME SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED
OUT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SATURDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME FROST, BUT WITH
THIS SYSTEM TRENDING CLOSER TO THE COAST OVER THE LAST DAY OR
SO IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE THERE ARE NOW QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER
OR NOT MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM
ENOUGH AGAIN. IF FROST OCCURS, BEST CHANCE WOULD BE THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE RELATIVELY LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
THE COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY TO OUR EAST SUNDAY, WITH AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WE WILL SEE LOW-
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND DEEP MIXING SUNDAY WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH, SO HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS AND LOWERED DEW POINTS AND RH FROM THE
NBM. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT,
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW. WHILE WPC HAS
LARGELY STUCK WITH THE NBM'S SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MONDAY
EVERYWHERE BUT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY, SOME 06Z AND MOST OF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY WHICH IS THE
SOLUTION WE ARE LEANING TOWARDS. GIVEN THAT IT WILL BE BREEZY AND
DEEP MIXING MAY HELP OFFSET ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION, WE WILL
THEREFORE MENTION THAT MONDAY COULD BE ANOTHER DAY WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. THAT SAID, THERE REMAINS SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY GIVEN
THE 4 DAY LEAD TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LARGE-SCALE FLOW REMAINS BLOCKED WITH PERSISTENT UPPER
TROUGHING TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WARM
FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY, AS SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
BUT GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS LEAD TIME THAT
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS SHOULD REACH OUR REGION
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MAY ALSO STALL NEARBY, WITH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT TO BRING
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES. HOWEVER, THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED,
AS THE CPC IS EXPECTING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIP FOR DAYS 8-14.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...MIXED FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE
START OF THIS TAF PERIOD AS LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH
LOW STRATOCUMULUS TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL,
KPOU, AND KPSF OVER THE NEXT HOUR. KENX RADAR SHOWS A FEW UPSLOPE
SHOWERS POPPING UP AROUND KGFL WHICH COULD BRIEFLY LOWER VIS TO IFR
AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KALB THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. CONDITIONS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS IMPROVED VFR CIGS THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON BY 20Z AT KPOU AND KGFL, AND 23-0Z AT KPSF. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KPOU,
VARIABLE 6-8 KT AT KGFL, AND SOUTHWESTERLY AT KALB AND KPSF WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KT. WINDS WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWEST 5-7 KT EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
AROUND 09Z.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...53
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