301
FXUS61 KALY 011044
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POPS INCREASED TO 60-70% ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT, THUS
LOWERING CHANCES FOR FROST WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. FROST ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN THE WEEKEND FOR PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY, SOUTHERN TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD HILLS WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON BEGINS TODAY.
2) UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK, WITH
MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER A DRY DAY TODAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE,
SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT, AS
A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN
PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, WITH THE PARENT UPPER
LOW LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. GUIDANCE
HAS CONTINUED TO TREND HIGHER WITH POPS, NOW 60-70% ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. QPF OF 0.10"-0.25" LOOK TO OCCUR WITHIN THE MOST
PERSISTENT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR WET
SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS,
WHERE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS < 1" COULD OCCUR ON NON-PAVED
SURFACES. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS, THE
THREAT FOR FROST HAS DIMINISHED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINING IN PLACE. CHANCES FOR FROST LOOK LOWER EVEN FOR SAT
NIGHT NOW, WITH AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER OUR AREA NORTH/WEST
OF AN OCEAN STORM PASSING JUST SOUTH/EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. WITH SOME SHORT WAVE
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE RETURNING SUN NIGHT, THERE MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY FROST IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUE THROUGH THU,
WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET AND SW FLOW ALOFT
DOWNSTREAM OF ANOTHER LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH ON TUE, THEN POTENTIALLY
STALL NEAR OUR AREA WED INTO THU, WHILE A POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT. THERE ARE STILL WIDELY VARYING
SCENARIOS AMONG THE GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT, BUT THE OVERALL
TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SOUTHWARD SHIFT WITH THE FRONT/WAVE. SHOULD
THIS TREND CONTINUES, IT WOULD RESULT IN LOWERING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WED-THU, BUT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WOULD STILL
EXIST AS THE NAEFS ARE STARTING TO INDICATE PWAT ANOMALIES
INCREASING TO +1 TO +2 STDEV. WITH SUCH STRONG KINEMATICS AND
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH, THE THREAT FOR SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THOUGH.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 02/03Z.
BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z, MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY OCCUR WITH A
FLUCTUATION OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z DUE TO LOWERING
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WITH PASSING RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS AT KGFL AND KPOU CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOR KALB AND KPSF, WESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING RANGING BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE THE RAIN ARRIVES THIS
EVENING AFTER 03Z.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...05
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