980
FXUS61 KALY 020549
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
149 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE INCREASED POPS FURTHER FOR TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD 60-90%
CHANCE FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
WITH DECENT CLEARING EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 20S AND 30S ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GROWING SEASON HAS
BEGUN IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT, SO HAVE INCLUDED FROST FOR
AREAS WHERE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE 36 DEGREES OR LESS
(MAINLY UPPER HUDSON VALLEY).
HAVE LOWERED DEWPOINTS AND INCREASED WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, AS STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND WINDY DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOME PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE THE
GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY BEGUN.
2) DEPENDING ON FUEL AVAILABILITY, RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE MET ON SUNDAY DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
3) UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR BOTH HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST
THIS WEEKEND. THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, FOR BOTH DAYTIME
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS.
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT. POPS
WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNSET, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
RAINFALL DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE OVERNIGHT. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE
DONE WITH PRECIP TOWARDS SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. OVERALL, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, WITH GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH. ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL
ADIRONDACKS, THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO WET SNOW, BUT
ANY ACCUMULATION (1" OR LESS) WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAIN
PEAK SUMMITS. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP, NO FROST IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL, RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOW TO MID 40S IN
VALLEY AREAS.
AFTER A DRYING DAY ON SATURDAY, THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF CLEARING, ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ALTHOUGH A
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZE IS EXPECTED FOR MANY AREAS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE
REGION. THE GROWING SEASON BEGAN MAY 1ST (TODAY) FOR THE HUDSON
VALLEY, FAR SOUTHERN TACONICS AND NW CT. SOME FROST ADVISORIES
COULD BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY NIGHT, MAINLY FOR THE UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME
SHELTERED AND OUTLYING AREAS IN NW CT, THE SOUTHERN TACONICS AND
AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION, ALTHOUGH THE MOST WIDESPREAD
POTENTIAL IS THE GLENS FALLS AND WASHINGTON COUNTY, NY AREA.
SOME PATCHY FROST COULD BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS, ALTHOUGH THIS LOOKS A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN COMPARED TO SATURDAY NIGHT, AS THERE COULD BE MORE
CLOUDS AND SOME APPROACHING SHOWERS, WHICH MAY KEEP TEMPS A
LITTLE MILDER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE EAST OFF THE
NORTHEAST, THERE WILL BE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE FOR
SUNDAY, BETWEEN THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF
TO THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD, GOOD
MIXING IS EXPECTED THANKS TO THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS DURING
PEAK HEATING. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE AND
COLLABORATED AN INCREASE IN WIND GUSTS WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST 20-30 MPH FOR THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH GOOD MIXING, RH VALUES WILL LOWER
BELOW EXPECTED NBM DEWPOINTS, WITH VALUES AS LOW AS 25-30
PERCENT FOR MANY AREAS.
WE HAVE ALREADY NOTIFIED NYS DEC ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND THEY
WILL BE DISCUSSING THE STATE OF THE FUELS FOLLOWING TONIGHT'S
RAINFALL WITH US ON SATURDAY. IF FINE FUELS ARE ABLE TO DRY OUT
(WHICH THEY TYPICALLY DO THIS TIME OF YEAR), THEN RED FLAG
WARNINGS OR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR PARTS
OF THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. WITH OUR REGION STILL IN THE PRE-
GREENUP PHASE, IT IS VERY EASY FOR THE COMBINATION OF FUELS, RH
AND WIND GUSTS TO REACH CRITERIA FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. GUSTY WINDS COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY AS WELL. WHILE
SOME ELEVATED RH IS POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN AREAS DUE TO INCREASING
CLOUDS/MOISTURE, LOW RH MAY STILL BE AN ISSUE FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, SPECIFICALLY
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
APPROACH ON TUESDAY AND MAY WIND UP STALLING OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION, AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT MAY
STALL, ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR THAT OUR REGION WILL SEE A WARM
UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S ON
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE AI/ML GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH THIS
WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE
BOUNDARY, WHICH IS STILL UNKNOWN, AS THE ENSEMBLES ARE STILL
SHOWING PLENTY OF VARIABILITY. WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL
NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE, SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAN'T BE RULED OUT DURING THE MID-WEKE AS
WELL. THE NBM IS ALREADY SHOWING A 50-80% CHANCE FOR 1" OF
RAINFALL IN TOTAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, SO WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/SUN...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SOME RAIN TO THE TAF SITES UNTIL AROUND 12-13Z/SAT. CIGS/VSBYS
WILL BE MIXED VFR/MVFR AT MOST SITES. KPSF HAS THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR MORE PROLONGED MVFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE ON IFR
CONDITIONS WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. ANY MVFR CIGS
WILL RETURN TO VFR BY THE MIDDAY HOURS SATURDAY WHERE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD OCCUR, MAINLY NEAR KGFL. CLEARING OCCURS
SATURDAY EVENING WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT/CALM WINDS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY 6-12 KT ON SATURDAY. WINDS DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KT
OR LESS SATURDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...33
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