955
FXUS61 KALY 021808
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
208 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FREEZE WARNINGS/FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TACONICS IN NY, AND NORTHWEST CT.
CONTINUED PREVIOUS TREND OF LOWERING DEWPOINTS/INCREASING
WINDS/WIND GUSTS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
DUE TO ANTICIPATED DEEP MIXING. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY, EASTERN
CATSKILLS AND TACONICS FOR ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FROST AND/OR FREEZE LIKELY TONIGHT IN AREAS WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON HAS BEGUN.
2) ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY,
EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN TACONICS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
3) UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR BOTH HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY ADVANCING EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WE EXPECT CLOUD COVERAGE TO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT, AND WITH COLD AIR ALOFT REMAINING OVER THE
REGION AND WINDS TRENDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER TONIGHT,
EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MUCH OF THE
REGION WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGIN (HUDSON RIVER VALLEY,
SOUTHERN TACONICS AND NW CT). ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY, EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S (13Z NBM SHOWING PROB MIN TEMPS <33 DEGREES AT 40-70%), AND
THUS A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.
SOME PATCHY FOG/FREEZING FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITHIN SOME OF
THESE AREAS AS WELL AS OTHER RIVER VALLEYS LATER TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A CHILLY START, EXPECT DEEP MIXING TO COMMENCE SUNDAY,
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING DEEP MIXING TO BETWEEN
750-725 HPA. WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH
OF I-90 WHERE SOME GUSTS MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 25-35 MPH BY LATE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60 AND DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE MID 20S WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY, RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 25-30
PERCENT IN THESE AREAS. DESPITE ANOTHER BOUT OF RAINFALL (MANY
AREAS RECEIVING 0.10"-0.25" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY), ENOUGH DRYING OF FINE FUELS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN COMBINATION WITH THE GUSTY WINDS/LOW RH WILL
RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CATSKILLS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
IN COORDINATION WITH NYS DEC, A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR
THE ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD COULD OCCUR FOR SOME AREAS AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON RH VALUES AND MAGNITUDE OF WIND
GUSTS AS A WARM FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, SPECIFICALLY
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
APPROACH ON TUESDAY AND MAY WIND UP STALLING OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION, AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT MAY
STALL, ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR THAT OUR REGION WILL SEE A WARM
UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S ON
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE AI/ML GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS
AGAIN ON THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY, WHICH IS STILL
UNKNOWN, AS THE ENSEMBLES ARE STILL SHOWING PLENTY OF
VARIABILITY. WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL NEAR THE FRONTAL
ZONE, SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAN'T
BE RULED OUT DURING THE MID-WEEK AS WELL. 13Z/02 NBM 48-HOUR
PROBS FOR > 1" RAINFALL ENDING 8 AM FRIDAY IS 40-70%, GREATEST
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90, THOUGH SIMILAR 48-HOUR PROBS FOR >2"
RAINFALL ARE MUCH LESS (GENERALLY 10-20% FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-90).
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/SUN...WITH WHAT'S LEFT OF THE RAIN SHOWERS NOW TO OUR
EAST, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW SPRINKLES COULD STILL POP UP IN
THE VICINITY OF KPOU OVER THE NEXT HOUR BUT THE PROBABILITY IS VERY
LOW AND IF OCCURS SHOULD NOT IMPACT FLYING CONDITIONS SO IT WAS NOT
MENTIONED EXPLICIT IN THE TAF. HI-RES GUIDANCE HAVE MOST LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AT KPOU AND KPSF OVERNIGHT.
SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM AT KGFL TONIGHT GIVEN THE RECENT RAIN,
BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN THIS CYCLE. MOST SHOULD SEE
A PERIOD OF CLEARING THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVE BACK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY AROUND NOON.
WINDS RANGE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DECREASING TO 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT. WINDS THEN PICK UP AROUND
13/14Z TOMORROW MORNING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KT
AND GUSTS 20-25 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
CTZ001-013.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
NYZ049-050-052-053-059-060-064>066.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
NYZ041-043-083-084.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24/05/27
AVIATION...53
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