670
FXUS61 KALY 030535
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FREEZE WARNINGS/FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TACONICS IN NY, AND NORTHWEST CT.
CONTINUED PREVIOUS TREND OF LOWERING DEWPOINTS/INCREASING
WINDS/WIND GUSTS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
DUE TO ANTICIPATED DEEP MIXING. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY, EASTERN
CATSKILLS AND TACONICS FOR ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FROST AND/OR FREEZE LIKELY TONIGHT IN AREAS WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON HAS BEGUN.
2) ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY,
EASTERN CATSKILLS AND TACONICS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
3) UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR BOTH HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY ADVANCING EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WE EXPECT CLOUD COVERAGE TO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT, AND WITH COLD AIR ALOFT REMAINING OVER THE
REGION AND WINDS TRENDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER TONIGHT,
EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MUCH OF THE
REGION WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGIN (HUDSON RIVER VALLEY,
SOUTHERN TACONICS AND NW CT). ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY, EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S (13Z NBM SHOWING PROB MIN TEMPS <33 DEGREES AT 40-70%), AND
THUS A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.
SOME PATCHY FOG/FREEZING FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITHIN SOME OF
THESE AREAS AS WELL AS OTHER RIVER VALLEYS LATER TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A CHILLY START, EXPECT DEEP MIXING TO COMMENCE SUNDAY,
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING DEEP MIXING TO BETWEEN
750-725 HPA. WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH
OF I-90 WHERE SOME GUSTS MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 25-35 MPH BY LATE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60 AND DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE MID 20S WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY, RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 25-30
PERCENT IN THESE AREAS. DESPITE ANOTHER BOUT OF RAINFALL (MANY
AREAS RECEIVING 0.10"-0.25" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY), ENOUGH DRYING OF FINE FUELS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN COMBINATION WITH THE GUSTY WINDS/LOW RH WILL
RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CATSKILLS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
IN COORDINATION WITH NYS DEC, A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR
THE ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD COULD OCCUR FOR SOME AREAS AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON RH VALUES AND MAGNITUDE OF WIND
GUSTS AS A WARM FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, SPECIFICALLY
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
APPROACH ON TUESDAY AND MAY WIND UP STALLING OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION, AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT MAY
STALL, ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR THAT OUR REGION WILL SEE A WARM
UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S ON
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE AI/ML GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS
AGAIN ON THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY, WHICH IS STILL
UNKNOWN, AS THE ENSEMBLES ARE STILL SHOWING PLENTY OF
VARIABILITY. WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL NEAR THE FRONTAL
ZONE, SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAN'T
BE RULED OUT DURING THE MID-WEEK AS WELL. 13Z/02 NBM 48-HOUR
PROBS FOR > 1" RAINFALL ENDING 8 AM FRIDAY IS 40-70%, GREATEST
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90, THOUGH SIMILAR 48-HOUR PROBS FOR >2"
RAINFALL ARE MUCH LESS (GENERALLY 10-20% FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-90).
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/MON...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL KEEP
SCT-BKN STRATOCU CLOUDS AROUND FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF
THE DAY SUNDAY. A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR A
BRIEF TIME SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE MORE PATCHY CLOUDS RETURN
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG A PASSING WARM FRONT, BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
5 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 KT ON SUNDAY. WINDS DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY
AROUND 00Z/MON THEN SHIFT MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY
06Z/MON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ049-050-052-
053-059-060-064>066.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ041-043-083-
084.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27/24/05
AVIATION...33
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